Bitcoin’s Drop Below $104K Has Traders Watching $100K and Even $92K
Bitcoin has dropped below $104,000 for the first time in weeks, triggering concerns among traders about a potential retest of sub-$100,000 levels. Analysts point to various factors including an unfilled CME futures gap at $92,000, heavy whale selling, and a stronger US dollar putting downward pressure on prices. Short-term holders are experiencing capitulation as losses mount, according to Glassnode's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) data. The ongoing volatility may provide long-term opportunities but signals caution for new investors.
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Bitcoin Drops Below $104K, Approaching Critical Levels
Bitcoin has fallen below $104,000 for the first time in weeks, alarming traders who fear a potential retest of sub-$100,000 levels. This drop has particularly affected new investors, as they face rising unrealized losses amidst growing market uncertainty. TradingView data on November 4 showed Bitcoin reaching $103,792 on Binance, marking a 2.7% dip in 24 hours, continuing the downward momentum earlier that week.
Concerns Over Bitcoin Holding $100K Support
Traders express serious concerns over Bitcoin maintaining its $100,000 support level. During the Asian trading session, weakness became evident as more participants doubted Bitcoin's stability above this key threshold. Crypto investor Ted Pillows remarked, “$BTC is in absolute free fall right now. There's no strong support until the $100,000 level, which means it'll most likely get retested.”
Adding another perspective, Pillows pointed out the CME futures gap hovering around $92,000, just below the 2025 annual opening price, reflecting potential downside risks.
Key Market Factors Weighing on Bitcoin
Derivatives trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that Bitcoin has lost major support levels built in recent weeks. He described its current position as nearing “the bottom of the range where price made its initial higher low after the bounce post 10/10 liquidation event.”
Daan also mentioned heavy selling by crypto whales, a stronger U.S. dollar, and weaker stock market performance as contributing factors to the decline. Summarizing, he noted, “Overall, not a very good recipe right now.”
Additionally, derivatives trader Ardi stated that Bitcoin might revisit the $102,000 level on Binance, aligning with the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) which hasn’t been tested for seven months.
Short-Term Holders Show Signs of Capitulation
The market's ongoing decline has put recent Bitcoin buyers into negative territory, with signs of capitulation appearing among short-term holders. Data from Glassnode reveals that the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator for short-term holders has dropped to -0.058, marking its lowest level since April.
Glassnode analysts emphasized, “Historically, these periods of stress and capitulation by short-term holders have often created opportunities for patient investors.”
Testing Long-Term Support Levels
Bitcoin's current situation reflects a classic test of long-term support levels. Analysts warn that a break below $104,000 — or especially below $100,000 — could escalate volatility and market uncertainty. Such a move poses significant risks, particularly for investors who entered near recent highs.