Bitcoin Price Slumps to $102,000 as Fed Policy, Investor Sentiment Pressure Markets

Bitcoin extended its losses, sliding more than 2.5% to around $102,852. This drop is attributed to renewed U.S. dollar strength and investor outflows from crypto ETFs, creating significant pressure on the market. The slump follows Bitcoin’s worst October performance in nearly a decade, further diminishing trader sentiment after last month’s historic liquidation event. Bitcoin briefly traded below $103,000, marking its lowest level in over two weeks and breaking below the critical 200-day moving average, a key long-term market momentum indicator according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data.

Bitcoin bounced back slightly, trading above $104,000 at the time of writing. However, market analyst Damian Chmiel warns that a sustained break below $100,000 could trigger a sharper sell-off toward the April lows near $74,000 — a potential 30% downside from current levels. According to updated Polymarket data, there is now an 80% chance of Bitcoin falling below $100,000 before 2026. This aligns with a report from Bitcoin Magazine, which highlighted a similar 78% probability for such a decline.

The macro backdrop remains challenging for risk assets like Bitcoin. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks last week diminished hopes for a December rate cut, reinforcing the narrative of 'higher for longer' interest rates. This has strengthened the U.S. dollar while simultaneously pressuring non-yielding assets, including Bitcoin. Additionally, crypto ETF investors have withdrawn over $1.8 billion from Bitcoin and Ether products in the past four trading days. Open interest in BTC perpetual futures has also dropped by approximately 30% since its October peak, signaling reduced leveraged exposure.

Bitcoin’s $106,900 support level, which aligns with the 0.146 Fibonacci retracement, was tested multiple times last week but failed to generate meaningful buying momentum. Analysts are now focusing on $104,000 as the next line of defense, though this level has already been tested twice and appears increasingly fragile. If Bitcoin decisively breaks below $104,000, traders are eyeing $96,000 as the subsequent support. On the upside, bulls must reclaim the 21-day EMA and Point of Control around $111,000 before targeting resistance levels at $114,600 and $122,000, as outlined by Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

The overall market sentiment remains bearish, as traders continue to deleverage and avoid aggressive long positions. According to Derek Lim, head of research at Caladan, the crypto market faces multiple near-term headwinds, including the aftermath of October’s massive liquidation event and protocol exploits. With Bitcoin’s technical indicators currently under pressure and no major macro catalysts in sight, traders await the November 13 Consumer Price Index report for potential sentiment shifts. Cooler inflation data could revive speculation of Fed easing, a development that Bitcoin bulls urgently need. For now, sellers remain firmly in control, and a close below $100,000 could accelerate the decline further.