5 clear signals that will prove if the Bitcoin bull run is still alive
Bitcoin's price has declined below key levels, despite narratives of widespread purchasing by entities like BlackRock and countries. The primary reasons include negative ETF flows, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing $714.8 million in redemptions over four sessions, forced selling by authorized participants, and reduced institutional demand. Macro factors such as a stronger U.S. dollar, restrictive real yields, and miner selling due to low hashprice have added downward pressure. The market remains in a distribution phase unless spot ETF flows turn positive, funding improves, and liquidity conditions ease. A reclaim of $106,400 is critical for a trend reversal, while further declines could push Bitcoin into the $90,000s.
Layer-1
Introduction: Bullish Narratives vs Market Realities
Crypto Twitter is abuzz with claims that “everyone is buying Bitcoin” — from figures like Michael Saylor, companies like BlackRock, and even entire countries and banks. However, despite these seemingly bullish narratives, Bitcoin’s price has sharply declined, breaking below critical levels as ETF flows turned negative. This disconnect underscores a vital point: markets driven by liquidity and marginal flows are heavily influenced by who’s actually buying — and when — rather than who claims to be buying.
ETF Flows and Bitcoin’s Decline
Bitcoin dropped below $106,400 as spot ETF flows turned negative over four consecutive sessions. BlackRock’s IBIT logged $714.8 million in redemptions during this period, removing a key source of daily demand. According to Farside Investors, outflows of $88.1M, $290.9M, $149.3M, and $186.5M coincided with this price breakdown. These redemptions forced authorized participants to sell underlying Bitcoin into the market, flipping net flows from demand to supply.
When ETF creations slow and redemptions rise, the daily bid that absorbs market volatility turns into a source of selling pressure.
Macro Factors and Derivatives Market Impact
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded to the 98-100 range in November, while the U.S. 10-year yield remained around 4.1%, keeping real rates restrictive. These macroeconomic factors contributed to compressed global liquidity, creating headwinds for Bitcoin. In addition, derivatives markets compounded the downward pressure:
- CME three-month futures premium declined to 4-5% annualized, reducing the incentive for carry trades.
- Perpetual swaps funding rates turned softer or negative, accelerating downward price movements during de-risking by long traders and forced liquidations.
Scheduled spot accumulation by corporates or sovereigns was not enough to offset the selling pressure from redemptions and leveraged liquidations.
Supply-Side Challenges: Miners and Mt. Gox
Supply narratives remain a concern. The Mt. Gox rehabilitation timeline has been extended to October 31, 2026, maintaining an overhang even as partial distributions occurred earlier this year. Recurring trustee updates and wallet movements continue to tighten risk tolerance on rebounds. Meanwhile, central to mining economics:
- Post-halving economics has pushed hashprice near cycle lows relative to the spring spike.
- Increased miner treasury monetization during stress days adds cyclical selling pressure, often synchronized with weak funding conditions.
Key Levels and Flow Implications
The loss of $106,400, a critical bull-bear pivot, coincided with ETF redemptions and sluggish crowdfunding. Indicators like the 2-Year MA Multiplier and Pi Cycle Top suggest the market may either face extended cycles or diminishing returns compared to past cycles. Traders react sharply to daily flows, liquidity inflection points, and macro tightening, amplifying the effect of small incremental sells.
If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $106,400, the next battle lies at $100,000 — with potential dips into the $90,000 range during further red sessions. Conversely, a return of significant ETF creations and a softer dollar could allow Bitcoin to retest $110,000 or even higher levels.
Tracking Indicators for Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle
How can investors determine if the Bitcoin bull run will resume? Several indicators offer invaluable insights:
- ETF Flows: Sustained multi-day creations from major issuers (e.g., BlackRock’s IBIT) signify renewed demand, while continued redemptions imply excess supply.
- Fund Flows: Broad-based inflows led by Bitcoin indicate institutional re-entry to risk, while outflows favor defensiveness.
- Leverage Conditions: Rising CME basis (above ~7–8% annualized) and stable funding rates suggest a bullish phase. Flat or negative setups imply deleveraging.
- Macro Liquidity: A weaker dollar (DXY < 97) and easing yields historically bolster Bitcoin’s liquidity. Strength in these metrics creates market pressure.
- Mining Supply Pressure: Stability in hashprice and reduced miner selling are bullish indicators, while sharp increases in miner transfers to exchanges suggest stress.
Conclusion: The Path Ahead
Over the last four trading days, the spot-ETF bid flipped into sustained net selling, driving Bitcoin below its pivot. With CME basis subdued, funding rates soft, and macro factors pressing liquidity, short-term de-risking, not dip-buying, has driven prices downward.
To shift back to a bull phase, Bitcoin needs:
- Daily ETF creations to resume, with significant inflows.
- The reclaiming of $106,400 as a support level.
- Loosening macroeconomic constraints (e.g., a weaker dollar).
If Bitcoin achieves these conditions, it could retest its cycle highs. Failing that, distribution and digestion remain the dominant themes within the broader market cycle.