Bitcoin shows exhaustion as analysts say $125K target unlikely in 2025
Bitcoin's price is showing signs of weakness, dipping to a 4-month low of $100,800 as selling pressures persist from long-term holders. Analysts remain divided on its future: while some predicted a rally to $125,000 in 2025, others foresee challenges due to market exhaustion and declining demand. Optimistic forecasts of reaching $250,000 by the end of 2023 have been questioned, with experts warning of sentiment erosion if recovery above $116,000 does not occur soon. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 'Extreme Fear,' with some analysts expecting a potential bear market in 2026, while others maintain hope for a bullish future.
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Bitcoin's Price Struggles Amid Market Uncertainty
Bitcoin’s price appears to be losing steam, which could mean that the more optimistic forecasts for the end of 2025 may not materialize this year. Analysts remain divided on whether Bitcoin (BTC) will experience renewed momentum in 2026. ShapeShift analyst Houston Morgan commented, “We don’t expect crypto to go any higher than $125K USD in 2025,” a target slightly below Bitcoin’s October 4 all-time high of over $126,000. Morgan added that Bitcoin would need to detach itself from its current correlation with US President Donald Trump’s announcements before a new bull run could occur.
Recent Market Pressure and Selling Trends
On Tuesday, Bitcoin selling intensified, causing BTC to fall sharply to 4-month lows of $100,800. Bitfinex analysts noted, “Persistent distribution from Bitcoin long-term holders continues to exert structural pressure on the market.” These sustained outflows, they said, align with “broader signs of exhaustion visible across the market” as holders sell into weakening demand. Analysts warned that if Bitcoin doesn’t quickly rebound to recent levels above $116,000, it may face further downside as the end of 2025 approaches. Bitcoin has already declined by 10.01% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap.
Fear Grips the Crypto Market
Sentiment in the crypto market has soured, as evidenced by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which halved to a score of 21 (Extreme Fear) on Tuesday. Analysts noted that “prolonged stagnation historically erodes sentiment and increases the risk of forced distribution.” Bitcoin’s current price weakness contrasts sharply with the optimistic predictions made only weeks earlier that suggested the asset could reach $250,000 before year-end.
Optimistic Projections for 2025 and Beyond
Despite the current downturn, some prominent analysts remain bullish. Speaking on the Bankless podcast in early October, BitMine chair Tom Lee and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes expressed confidence that Bitcoin could still hit between $200,000 and $250,000 by year-end, a prediction they’ve upheld throughout the year. However, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz cautioned that Bitcoin reaching this price would require almost perfect conditions, describing the scenario as needing the planets to align.
Diverging Opinions on Bitcoin's 2026 Outlook
Looking ahead to 2026, analysts are divided on Bitcoin’s potential. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan predicted in July that 2026 would be an “up year” for Bitcoin. Conversely, financial analyst Andrew Lokenauth suggested in a social media post that “2026 will likely be a bear market, similar to prior midterm years.” Adding to the mix of predictions, veteran trader Peter Brandt recently warned that Bitcoin could retreat to bear market levels as low as $60,000.