This Bitcoin Price Pattern Has Emerged 3 Times Since Late 2023, Triggering Corrections

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly fell below $100,000 for the first time since June on Tuesday, reaching lows of around $98,951. This decline took the largest cryptocurrency below two critical support levels necessary to sustain the current bull market, fueling concerns that the decline might accelerate further.

The two crucial support levels in focus are:

• The 365-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $102,055
• The 365-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $99,924

Both levels had already been tested earlier during this bull cycle. For example, in August 2024, Bitcoin relied on the 365-day SMA around $48,963 as a support level while briefly dipping below the EMA price. Similarly, during April's “tariff tantrum,” Bitcoin dropped as low as $76,500, breaking below both moving averages before quickly reclaiming them.

The continued selling pressure originates from long-term holders—investors who have held their Bitcoin for at least 155 days. The supply controlled by this group now stands at approximately 14.4 million BTC, a reduction from over 14.7 million BTC during its peak in July.

This marks the third significant selling wave initiated by long-term holders since late 2023. Historically, each wave has introduced additional downward pressure, leading to:

• Price consolidations
• Corrections exceeding 10% after a rally

The most recent occurrence was witnessed during the November 2024 rally, which followed President Trump’s election victory.