Bitcoin technical analysis: 3 levels to watch this week

Price: 101,766.26 USDT, currently below all daily EMAs, reflecting bearish pressure.

• Daily RSI: 32.93, confirming downward momentum with limited upside potential.
• MACD Histogram: -798.46, which further confirms negative momentum.
• The daily structure remains in favor of sellers, unless the price reclaims the 20/50 EMAs.
• Bollinger Bands: The price is slightly below the lower band, indicating sell-side volatility and possible short-term exhaustion.
• ATR14: 3,636.86, higher volatility on the daily timeframe, suggesting the need for wide stops when trading.
• Pivot: Current price is 101,034.35 (above the central pivot). Small support exists there but overall downside risk remains high.

• Close: 101,766.25 USDT, below EMA20 (102,208.71) and EMA50 (104,123.24), indicating an intraday bearish tilt.
• RSI14: 42.47, below 50 but not deeply oversold, showing mild momentum that could shift quickly depending on volume.
• MACD: Line at -772.38, signal at -1,048.93, histogram positive at 276.55. This suggests a weak recovery attempt intraday.
• Bollinger Bands: Price is near the middle band, signaling short-term consolidation.
• ATR14: 1,125.90, indicative of moderate intraday volatility. Shorter stop placements are recommended for shorter-term trades.

• Close: 101,747.55 USDT, slightly below EMA20 (101,790.57) and EMA50 (101,758.43). The price is tightly compressed at a micro level.
• RSI14: 50.44, neutral and indicating a balance between buyers and sellers. This could lead to a potential breakout.
• MACD: Line at 142.71, signal at 179.03, histogram at -36.33, which suggests a fade risk if momentum does not pick up.
• Bollinger Bands: Price near the lower band, hinting at short-term pressure but also the potential for quick mean reversion.
• ATR14: 350.98, suggesting small stops for scalping. Expect tight and quick swings.

Key Resistance Levels:

• 109,180.18 USDT (EMA20): Sellers likely to defend this level.
• 111,620.73 USDT (EMA50): Represents a multi-week trend barrier.
• 109,068.72 USDT (EMA200): A critical trend reference point, reclaiming it would reduce bearish sentiment.

Key Support Levels:

• 102,449.73 USDT (Bollinger lower band): A close below this signals volatile downward expansion.
• 101,034.35 USDT (Pivot Point): Indicates short-term support, with a break below increasing bearish pressure further.

Bullish (Contrarian):

• Trigger: Reclaim and close above EMA20 (109,180.18 USDT).
• Target: First target at EMA50 (111,620.73 USDT), extended to 115,689.17 USDT (upper Bollinger Band).
• Invalidation: Failure to hold above EMA20.
• Risk: Use stops around 0.5-1.0 ATR (~3,637.00 USDT).

Bearish (Main):

• Trigger: Daily close below pivot S1 (99,698.71 USDT) or clear break below the lower Bollinger band.
• Target: Measured move approximately equal to 1.62 ATR (~3,637.00 USDT).
• Invalidation: Strong daily close above Pivot Point (101,034.35 USDT).

Neutral:

• Trigger: Sustained range between PP (101,034.35 USDT) and R1 (103,101.91 USDT).
• Strategy: Fade key levels within this range.
• Invalidation: A breakout with high volume beyond Bollinger bands.

• Total Crypto Market Cap: $3,473,345,384,716.37 (-1.81% in 24 hours).
• BTC Dominance: 58.43%.
• Fear and Greed Index: 23 (Extreme Fear), indicating a low risk appetite, putting heavier pressure on altcoins.
• Recent headlines reflect a pullback after October's gains. Sentiment remains cautious, aligning with the bearish daily structure.
• Mixed trading volume further supports the risk-off tone.

• DeFi Ecosystem: Data shows increased fees for Uniswap V3 and Fluid DEX, while Uniswap V2 fees declined. This indicates selective participation and uneven liquidity across the DeFi space.
• Recent News: Reports suggest that “Uptober” ended with a pullback. Federal Reserve commentary continues to impact crypto trends, adding to the overall risk-off sentiment.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research).