Bitcoin Just Flashed Its Biggest Bear Signal Since 2022 — Collapse Incoming?
Bitcoin's price plunged nearly 5%, sparking concerns of a bear market similar to past cycles. Analysts highlight the significance of Bitcoin's breach below its 365-day Moving Average (MA), which previously signaled the start of the 2022 bear market. The MA, currently at $102,063, serves as critical support in both bear and bull markets. Experts warn that failure to quickly reclaim this level adds market risks, with the average acquisition price of top high-cost buyers near $100,000 underlining critical support levels.
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Bitcoin's Price Drop Sparks Concerns
Bitcoin's price plunged nearly 5% on Tuesday, which has triggered concerns among analysts about a potential technical breakdown similar to the start of previous bear cycles. Experts warn that failure to reclaim the $102,000 level quickly could significantly heighten market risk.
The Importance of the 365-day Moving Average (MA)
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at the on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, stated on his X account Wednesday that Bitcoin’s price has fallen below its 365-day Moving Average (MA). Moreno emphasized that the 365-day MA is highly significant in Bitcoin’s historical price analysis. He noted, “It was the final confirmation of the start of the 2022 bear market.”
Historical Patterns Confirm MA's Predictive Role
Charts reveal that in December 2022, Bitcoin’s price slid below the 365-day MA. In March 2023, attempts to rebound toward the MA failed, leading to a year-long downward trend, often termed the 'crypto winter.' However, the strong breach of the MA in March 2023 marked the official end of that bear market. Subsequently, Bitcoin's price consolidated sideways for almost a year before beginning a strong uptrend toward the end of 2023.
MA as a Key Support Level
During bull runs, the 365-day MA has served as a critical support level. For instance, during the sharp 10% decline following the Yen carry-trade sell-off in August 2024, the price found support at the MA and later rallied. A similar pattern was observed in April 2025, following market volatility triggered by President Trump’s trade tariffs. These patterns indicate that temporary price drops during a bull run should stabilize near the 365-day MA.
Current Bitcoin Outlook and Risks
According to Julio Moreno, the 365-day MA currently sits at $102,063. He stressed that Bitcoin's price must quickly cross back above this level to avoid further risks. This aligns with the ‘Top Buyers Cost Basis Distribution’ metric cited by Glassnode, which assesses the average acquisition price of high-cost Bitcoin purchasers. The average acquisition price for the top 25% of buyers is estimated at $100,000, and Bitcoin has not dropped below this threshold in the last two years.