XRP price sees bearish divergence despite DEX volume surge
XRP is experiencing a price decline despite rising on-chain activity and trading volume, with its price falling 13% over the past week and 24% in the past month to $2.25, down from its $3.65 all-time high. On-chain activity on XRP Ledger has surged, hitting 954,000 daily transactions, but this has not translated into price gains, potentially due to automated trading or distribution during price drops. Futures trading volume has increased, while open interest has fallen, indicating traders are exiting or adjusting positions. Key support is at $2.10, with resistance at $2.40–$2.50, and upcoming events, including ETF filings and the Swell conference, may introduce volatility. Technical analysis shows weak market momentum, with a relative strength index of 36 suggesting continued pressure.
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XRP Price and On-Chain Activity Divergence
XRP is facing price pressure as the market sees a divergence between weakening price action and increasing on-chain activity. Traders are now closely observing key support levels to determine the token's future movements. While trading and decentralized exchange activity rise, the price decline indicates caution in the market.
Price Decline and Support Levels
Currently, XRP trades at $2.25, marking a 1.8% decline in the last 24 hours. Over the past week, the price has ranged between $2.12 and $2.66, reflecting a 13% drop. On a monthly scale, XRP is down 24% and sits 38% below its all-time high of $3.65 from July. Key support lies near $2.10, a critical level for traders to watch moving forward.
Trading Volume and Derivatives Data
Despite price declines, trading volume has surged to $9.85 billion in the past day, marking a 61.6% increase. However, derivatives data from CoinGlass indicates a 9.93% drop in open interest, now at $3.43 billion, even as futures trading volume rose by 49.4% to $13.93 billion. This trend suggests that traders are consolidating their positions rather than opening new ones.
On-Chain Transaction Activity
According to a Nov. 5 analysis by CryptoQuant, activity on XRP Ledger's decentralized exchange reached 954,000 transactions in a single day, hitting recent highs. While this indicates ecosystem engagement, the timing raises concerns as prices remained weak. Historical patterns show that rising activity during price declines may stem from automated trading, arbitrage, or distribution, rather than accumulation.
Catalysts for Potential Volatility
Several upcoming events might shape XRP's price trajectory. Key developments include spot XRP ETF filings, with Canary Capital's application potentially auto-activating by Nov. 13, which analysts estimate could attract $1–$2 billion in inflows. Additionally, the ongoing Swell 2025 conference in New York may introduce announcements related to payments, tokenized assets, and partnerships. Institutional treasuries holding XRP, along with ETF preparations, may also influence the market.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
XRP's market structure remains weak, with the relative strength index at 36, signaling persistent downward pressure. The price remains below major short- and mid-term moving averages, while momentum and MACD indicators point to further bearish trends. Resistance is expected in the $2.40–$2.50 range, while strong support lies at $2.10. A clean break below $2.10 could trigger further retracement, though maintaining this level might allow for a controlled recovery spurred by market catalysts.