Bitcoin Underpeforming US Treasuries
In 2025, Bitcoin has underperformed U.S. Treasuries, with a year-to-date increase of only 8%, highlighting its weakness as a speculative asset. Despite maintaining higher gains for most of the year, a recent price crash pushed Bitcoin below Treasuries, with its value briefly dropping under $100,000. Retail investors are reportedly at 'max desperation,' but Bitwise's CIO Matt Hougan believes a cryptocurrency winter is not imminent. On Tuesday, Bitcoin ETFs saw $578 million in outflows, with the average cost basis for all spot ETFs at $89,600.
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Bitcoin Underperforms U.S. Treasuries in 2025
In a truly shocking twist, Bitcoin has now performed worse than the U.S. Treasuries in 2025. BTC is now up by a mere 8% this year, a surprising underperformance compared to expectations.
A tweet by Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) on November 5, 2025, highlights this remarkable turn of events, stating: "Bitcoin has now performed worse than US Treasuries in 2025".
Why This Performance Matters
U.S. Treasuries are typically regarded as the ultimate risk-free benchmark for investors. The fact that Bitcoin, a highly speculative asset, has underperformed Treasuries in what was expected to be a banner year for cryptocurrencies underscores the growing weaknesses in digital assets.
Interestingly, Bitcoin initially remained ahead of U.S. Treasuries for most of the year (as represented by the yellow line). However, a sharp price crash on Tuesday erased significant 2025 gains, pushing Bitcoin’s performance below Treasuries.
Bitcoin Drops Below Key Levels
As reported by U.Today, Bitcoin recently dropped below the key psychological level of $100,000, albeit briefly. This marks a significant moment for the flagship cryptocurrency, highlighting the fragility of its 2025 rally amid growing market concerns.
"Max Desperation" Among Retail Investors
According to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, retail investors have reached a point of "max desperation." Despite this sentiment, Hougan remains optimistic, asserting that a "cryptocurrency winter" similar to previous bearish cycles is not coming.
ETFs and Key Metrics to Watch
On Tuesday, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded significant $578 million in outflows, signaling caution among investors. The average cost basis of all Bitcoins purchased through spot ETFs currently stands at $89,600, a crucial level to monitor for further market analysis moving forward.