HBAR Price Walks a Tightrope Between Sellers and Buyers — Can Whales Tip the Balance?
HBAR's price has been fluctuating within a narrow range between $0.16 and $0.20 amidst a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Over the past month, the token saw a 21% decline, with an 11% drop in the past week. While technical indicators like a bearish crossover between the 100-day and 200-day EMAs suggest ongoing selling pressure, a bullish divergence in the RSI hints at potential recovery. Additionally, on-chain data shows increasing capital inflows, with large investors (whales) quietly accumulating HBAR as the Chaikin Money Flow strengthens. This developing balance in market forces will determine if HBAR breaks above $0.20 for bullish momentum or falls below $0.16, exposing $0.14 as a critical support level.
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HBAR Faces Tight Competition Between Buyers and Sellers
The HBAR price has been moving within a narrow range, indicating ongoing competition between buyers and sellers. Over the past month, the price has declined by approximately 21%, with an 11% weekly loss. However, compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, HBAR's losses have slowed. The current chart captures a tug-of-war between long-term weakness and early signs of buying. While momentum is improving, long-term signals suggest caution. The next move depends on how influential participants, like whales, act.
Conflicting Signals in HBAR's Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, HBAR reveals two diverging signals. A bearish crossover is forming between the 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). EMAs help smooth out price data to show long-term trends, and this bearish crossover suggests that momentum is weakening, with long-term sellers maintaining pressure on the price. This setup may indicate a correction-like move.
However, bullish divergence adds a contrasting perspective. From October 23 to November 4, while the price made a lower low, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) — which measures if an asset is overbought or oversold — formed a higher low. This divergence often signals slowing selling pressure and potential early signs of buyer optimism. These opposing trends define HBAR's current phase, with short-term recovery momentum clashing with ongoing long-term resistance.
Key Price Range: Buyers and Sellers Hold Their Ground
Since October 11, HBAR has been locked in a range, oscillating between $0.16 and $0.20. This range illustrates a balance of power, where short-term buyers are testing resistance while long-term sellers defend their positions. Whether this balance holds or breaks will shape HBAR's next trend. A breakout above $0.20 could signal real bullish momentum, while falling below $0.16 might expose HBAR to further declines, targeting $0.14 as critical support.
Whales Stepping In: Money Flow Strengthens
While technical indicators remain mixed, on-chain data provides a clearer picture of whale activity. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) — which tracks capital entering or leaving an asset — has been rising since November 3, even as prices dipped. A rising CMF during a price decline often signals accumulation by whales or long-term investors.
Between November 3 and 5, as HBAR prices dropped toward $0.16, CMF strengthened, suggesting significant capital inflows may counteract short-term selling.
Outlook: Whales Could Tip the Balance
Looking ahead, the HBAR price remains on a tightrope. If CMF stays positive and whales maintain their buying activity, the price could push toward the upper resistance of $0.20. However, a slowdown in whale activity might expose HBAR to greater downside risk, with $0.16-$0.14 acting as key support levels.
A daily close above $0.20 would suggest a bullish breakout, while a break below $0.16 could shift the narrative to a bearish outlook, increasing pressure on the price.