Unlucky bettor loses nearly $1M wagering against Mamdani
Zohran Mamdani defeated Andrew Cuomo to become New York City's 111th mayor, making history as the city's youngest mayor in a century and its first Muslim mayor. His victory, achieved at a massive decentralized betting event on Polymarket, cost one participant nearly $1 million in losses. The prediction market saw over $424 million in total trading volume, with Mamdani's outcome alone reaching $143 million. Mamdani, a liberal leader, vowed to represent the working class while critiquing Donald Trump. Democrats aim to use Mamdani's win to counter Trump's influence ahead of the 2026 midterms amid claims of market manipulation by Polymarket. Republican Curtis Sliwa, a Trump ally, promised to monitor Mamdani's leadership closely after conceding defeat.
Zohran Mamdani's Historic Mayoral Victory
Zohran Mamdani’s landmark victory over Andrew Cuomo to become New York City’s 111th mayor marked a significant moment in the city’s history. At just 34 years of age, he became the youngest mayor in a century and the city’s first Muslim mayor. In his acceptance speech, Mamdani pledged to represent “the working people of this city who have been forgotten for far too long.”
High-Stakes Betting on Polymarket
The race between Mamdani, Cuomo, Curtis Sliwa, and Jim Walden generated massive interest on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, with more than $424 million in total trading volume. Mamdani's victory spelled disaster for some traders, particularly one user, 'fuxfux007', who lost $958,423 after betting against Mamdani. This was one of the largest losses recorded, dwarfing the next closest loss of $153,183.
Profits and Losses in the Polymarket Community
The Top 10 Losers chart was dominated by 'fuxfux007', followed by other traders such as 'toytrucks' who lost $153,183 and participants like '0xeb…38e2' and 'SolanaSnowballs' who each lost close to $100,000. Meanwhile, on the winners' side, the account 'dubdubdub2' enjoyed $141,554 in total realized and unrealized profits, with others like '0xfc…eac8' and 'kcnyekchno' earning between $78,000 and $117,000.
Market Trends and Open Interest Volumes
Polymarket records indicate that the total trading volume for Mamdani’s outcome exceeded $143 million, outperforming Curtis Sliwa’s $60.4 million, Jim Walden’s $49.2 million, and Andrew Cuomo’s $48.7 million. Andrew Cuomo's markets led in open interest with $7.45 million, followed by Mamdani with $3.38 million. Lesser open interests included Eric Adams with $882,303 and Brad Lander with $457,323.
Political Implications of Mamdani's Victory
Mamdani’s victory has deep political implications, coming at a time when Democrats are struggling to counter Donald Trump’s agenda. Addressing a jubilant crowd, Mamdani took aim at Trump and declared: “If anyone can show a nation betrayed by Donald Trump how to defeat him, it is the city that gave rise to him.” With the 2026 midterms approaching, Democrats hope to capitalize on this momentum in their fight against Republican dominance.
Controversies Around Prediction Markets
The election saw accusations of manipulation on Polymarket, as billionaire Bill Ackman alleged that the platform’s prediction markets were tampered with to artificially boost Mamdani’s odds. These allegations echoed similar claims from the 2024 US Presidential election, where large bets allegedly inflated Donald Trump’s chances. However, these claims have so far lacked substantive proof.
Curtis Sliwa’s Reaction to the Outcome
Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa, a Trump ally and former leader of the Guardian Angels, predicted his loss prior to the election. After the results, he vowed to act as “mayor in exile” to oppose Mamdani’s initiatives. Speaking with CNN, Sliwa declared: “Every time he crosses that line, I’ll organize the opposition, protest, and stop his initiatives.”