Bitcoin will be hacked in 2 years... and other quantum resistant marketing lies
A 'Quantum Doom Clock' predicts quantum computers capable of breaking widely-used cryptography, including Bitcoin, could emerge within 2-3 years, relying on assumptions of fast hardware improvement. However, mainstream experts view crypto-breaking quantum computing as achievable by the mid-2030s to 2040s due to engineering and error-rate challenges. U.S. and UK agencies recommend significant migration to post-quantum algorithms by 2035, with gradual implementation stages. Bitcoin’s current designs delay exposure risks, though over 6 million BTC may already be vulnerable. Proposals for post-quantum upgrades are under discussion, involving larger signatures and rotated outputs. Broader implications include the potential exposure of banking and legacy systems to quantum threats. While narrative clocks create urgency, engineering milestones and institutional timelines are key drivers for planning.
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Quantum Countdown Websites Predict Cryptography Breakthroughs
A new quantum countdown website called The Quantum Doom Clock, operated by Postquant Labs and Hadamard Gate Inc., predicts that quantum computers could break widely used public key cryptography within a two- to three-year window, potentially affecting Bitcoin. The site presents a timeline that spans from the late 2020s to early 2030s, assuming aggressive advancements in qubit scaling and error rates.
Key Projections and Industry Responses
According to the Quantum Doom Clock, combining recent resource estimates, optimistic error trends, and exponential hardware growth could place the required physical qubits in the few-million range. In contrast, government bodies like the U.S. NSA and the UK National Cyber Security Centre provide a more conservative timeline, with recommendations to complete transitions to post-quantum algorithms by 2035. Key intermediate milestones include identifying quantum-sensitive services by 2028 and prioritizing migrations by 2031.
Lab Progress and Technical Challenges
Laboratory advancements, such as Caltech’s neutral-atom array with 6,100 qubits and Google’s Willow chip, demonstrate engineering steps toward fault tolerance. However, they do not exhibit the required scale, coherence, or logical gate quality for breaking elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) via Shor’s algorithm at Bitcoin-breaking parameters. A widely cited 2021 study estimated that factoring RSA-2048 would require 20 million physical qubits with specific error rates, which remains far from current hardware capabilities.
Bitcoin Exposure Risks and Solutions
For Bitcoin, the most immediate risk comes from key exposure on-chain rather than attacks on SHA-256 hashing. Outputs like legacy P2PK and Taproot paths could become targets once capable quantum machines emerge. Core contributors are exploring upgrades such as Lamport signatures, P2QRH address formats, and methods to quarantine or rotate insecure UTXOs. Proponents of BIP-360 estimate over 6 million BTC are exposed, but this remains a debated figure.
Economic and Technical Migration Challenges
Migration to post-quantum signatures introduces economic and technical challenges, with larger keys and signatures significantly increasing blockchain size and transaction fees. For example, NIST FIPS-204 mandates signatures up to 2,420 bytes, compared to the much smaller secp256k1 signatures in use today. Aggregations, batching, and commit-reveal schemes may offset these issues but require time to implement effectively.
Divergences in Predictions and Conservative Views
Discrepancies emerge between marketing-driven projections like the Quantum Doom Clock and the stepwise progress observed in labs. Conservative estimates suggest breakthroughs in error correction and T-gate distillation factories might delay material threats until the 2040s or later. Government policy deadlines, like a 2035 migration goal, align with these more conservative scenarios rather than immediate quantum risks.
Wider Implications of Quantum Vulnerabilities
Beyond Bitcoin, quantum computers would expose legacy systems in banking, social media, and finance apps, resulting in potential societal risks. Many systems, such as ATMs still running on Windows XP, will also need urgent upgrades. Thus, quantum readiness involves not just cryptocurrency but the entire digital infrastructure to prevent severe global disruptions.