Morning Minute: Bitcoin Breaks Below $100K for First Time Since May

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter authored by Tyler Warner. The thoughts and analysis shared are his own and may not reflect the views of Decrypt. To conveniently follow these updates, readers are encouraged to subscribe to Morning Minute on Substack.

Today’s top news highlights: Crypto majors fell between 2-5% but began recovering later. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke below the $100,000 mark, sparking market turbulence and large-scale liquidations before rebounding to around $102,300.

Other notable movements:

• Ethereum (ETH) dropped below $3,100.
• Solana (SOL) slid to under $150.
• Several altcoins experienced double-digit losses, with some dropping 30-60% or more over the month.

Despite these setbacks, optimism persists as BTC showed signs of recovery this morning, climbing above $102,000, while ETH rebounded to over $3,340 and SOL neared $160.

The highly-anticipated ‘Mando vs KBM’ prediction market on Myriad was resolved when BTC briefly dipped below $100k before touching $120k. This event triggered over $2 billion in liquidations.

Similarly, broader market indicators showed:

• Sentiment remains in Extreme Fear, despite being up 2 points from Monday.

Altcoins followed BTC’s trajectory, pulling back significantly. However, markets are beginning to stabilize after the initial turmoil.

Quote: “-38% on ETH from the top so far this cycle. After breaking successive ATHs, we saw drawdowns (and recoveries after each one) of:

• 37% in February ‘21
• 23% in April ‘21
• 60% in May-July ‘21
• 34% in September ‘21. Each one was an existential crisis.” – DCinvestor on X

Interesting Data Point: The average BTC cost basis across all lifetime inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs sits around $89,600. Current BTC price is hovering near $100,000, providing a notable contrast.

Market volatility can be unsettling, but pullbacks like these are a regular occurrence in crypto markets. Historically, such corrections have been followed by outsized gains.

Key macroeconomic factors supporting recovery include:

1. Signs that the U.S. government shutdown may soon resolve.
2. Persistent ETF inflows and increasing 401k crypto access.
3. Continuous government spending fueling the ‘debasement trade.’
4. A growing alignment of U.S. policies with Bitcoin adoption and crypto-friendly regulations.

“Don’t capitulate and let the Bankers steal your Bitcoin.”

Other noteworthy Crypto and Web3 updates include:

• Crypto majors recovering after Tuesday’s dip: BTC (-2%) at $102,100, ETH (-5%) at $3,320, and SOL (-2%) at $157.
• Leading gainers: ZK (+24%), DASH (+12%), ASTER (+12%), and HYPE (+9%).
• Weekly liquidations topped $1.7B.
• Chainlink introduced Chainlink Runtime Environment (CRE), enabling smoother legacy finance integrations.
• Gemini’s licensing efforts for a prediction market platform continue.
• Marathon Digital’s Q3 revenue reached $252M, supported by its expansion into AI compute services.

In corporate treasuries/ETFs:

• Bitcoin ETFs registered $566M in outflows, while ETH ETFs saw $219M in outflows.
• Solana Bitwise ETFs held steady with $15M in net inflows.

NFT markets are diverging but showing recovery:

• Punks: -1% at 35.5 ETH.
• Pudgy Penguins: +2.5% at 5.56 ETH.
• BAYC: +1% at 5.9 ETH.

Major NFT movers include:

• Moonbirds (+27%).
• Kodas (+15%).

Other highlights:

• Cooper Flagg’s NBA Top Shot Moment sold for $14,000 initially and $12,500 on resale.
• NBA Top Shot rolled out an updated marketplace UI featuring price history and new analytics.
• Virtuals and Pudgy Penguins introduced Pudgy AI, an assistant to create tailored Pengu videos based on user posts.