Bitcoin Bulls' Last Stand? $95K, According to This Well-Followed Analyst
Bitcoin has dropped below $100,000, with $95,000 identified as a critical level by analyst James Check, also known as Checkmate. Currently, 57% of all bitcoin investments are underwater at the $100,000 level, and market losses total roughly $20 billion—about 3% of its market cap, far less than previous dips, which reached 7%-8%. However, a slide to $95,000 could push losses closer to 10%, potentially triggering a historic bear market. Check emphasizes the significance of defending the $95,000 level while noting the challenging market conditions. Meanwhile, Coinglass' Fear & Greed Index indicates 'Extreme Fear,' potentially signaling a short-term price bottom.
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Bitcoin Falls Below $100,000: Symbolic and Strategic Implications
While Bitcoin's BTC decline below $100,000 yesterday was of significant symbolic importance, it's the $95,000 level which could prove key, according to James Check, or Checkmate as he's known online. This drop below $100,000 marks a critical psychological barrier for many investors.
Underwater Investments and Market Fear
Nearly 57% of all dollars invested in Bitcoin are now underwater at the $100,000 level, according to Check. This helps to explain the deep fear currently plaguing the market. However, Check notes that the current losses sit at roughly $20 billion, or 3% of Bitcoin's market cap, which is still relatively modest compared to previous declines.
Historical Context: Losses and Bear Markets
Previous price dips in 2024 and earlier this year saw losses relative to market cap at the 7%-8% level. A further decline to $95,000, according to Check, would bring losses closer to the 10% area. Historically, this threshold tends to mark the beginning of bear markets.
Market Sentiment and Predictions
James Check emphasized the current market complexity, stating: "The current market conditions are some of the hardest to read in my experience." While a fall below $95,000 would be unwelcome, Check predicts that the bulls will put up a strong fight to defend this level.
Fear and Greed Index Signals Extreme Fear
Coinglass' Fear & Greed Index has dropped into the "Extreme Fear" range at 24. Historically, readings of Extreme Fear have sometimes correlated with short-term bottoms in Bitcoin. For context, the index fell as low as 21 in April during the tariff panic when Bitcoin plummeted to $75,000.
Further Analysis and Research
For those curious about recent analysis, you can read more about the situation in Galaxy's Research Chief's reaction to the recent events: Read more here. The ongoing fluctuations highlight the uncertain nature of the cryptocurrency market.