Bitcoin brief slip below $100K heightens crypto winter fears

Bitcoin’s sustained price above $100,000 was supposed to symbolize its arrival as a mature institutional asset. However, its sudden reversal below that threshold has unsettled traders, sparking fears of another crypto winter. On Nov. 4, Bitcoin briefly dipped to its lowest level since May at $99,075, before recovering to approximately $102,437 as of press time. Despite the recovery, BTC remains down 3% from the day’s peak of $104,777, according to CryptoSlate data.

This price performance has resulted in Bitcoin lagging behind US Treasuries for the first time this year. It erased one of 2025’s most popular macro trades. However, analysts interpret the move as a structural reset, not a systemic collapse, reflecting evolving market dynamics.

According to analysts, long-term holders (LTHs) have contributed significantly to Bitcoin’s downward trend by realizing profits at record rates. Analyst James Van Straten highlighted that over 362,000 BTC (equivalent to approximately 3,100 BTC/day) has been sold since July, a pace that has quickened in the past three weeks to nearly 9,000 BTC daily.

Another analyst, Johan Bergman, estimated that the cohort’s realized profits rose from $600 billion in June to $754 billion currently. He remarked: “Assuming they sold at an average price of $110,000, that’s about $72,000 in profit per coin. So, $154B / $72K ≈ 2.1 million coins sold.”

Furthermore, data indicates Bitcoin faces $34 billion in monthly sell-side pressure as older coins flow back to exchanges, offsetting weakening demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries, which have shifted focus to share buybacks instead of new crypto allocations.

Data from Glassnode shows a sharp decline in speculative activity, as funding rates for perpetual futures have dropped by 62% since August, from approximately $338 million to $127 million per month. The firm stated: “This underscores a clear macro downtrend in speculative appetite, as traders grow reluctant to pay interest to maintain long exposure.”

Meanwhile, global liquidity challenges, exacerbated by a prolonged US government shutdown, have immobilized roughly $150 billion in the Treasury General Account. This has reduced liquidity circulating through risk assets like Bitcoin. BitMEX cofounder Arthur Hayes noted an 8% decline in dollar liquidity since July, contributing to Bitcoin’s 5% decline, reinforcing the correlation between the two.

Analyst James Check estimates that 57% of all dollars invested in Bitcoin are now in loss as prices hover around $95,000. His cost-basis model highlights a ‘recency bias’, where coins bought recently are given more weight in sentiment analysis. He explained: “63% of capital invested carries a cost basis above $95,000, making that level a key psychological and structural support point.”

Unrealized losses currently total nearly $20 billion, or about 3% of Bitcoin’s market cap, with historical bear markets beginning once losses exceed 10%. According to Check, a drop below $95,000 could significantly worsen sentiment, potentially marking the start of a new bear phase. He emphasized: “Nobody wants to make that call AFTER the price has fallen, which is why $95K is a critical line in the sand to hold.”

Industry analysts remain divided on whether Bitcoin’s recent pullback signifies a new bear market or a mid-cycle reset. James Check noted that 2025 has witnessed a prominent rotation of coins, especially above $95,000, and expects the bulls will fight to defend that level. However, he cautioned: “Prepare for a bear, but don’t believe the doomers.”

Conversely, Arthur Hayes, in a recent note titled “Hallelujah,” framed the decline as stemming from temporary dollar scarcity rather than structural issues. He predicted a market reversal when policymakers reopen the government and expand balance sheets, boosting liquidity and reigniting the Bitcoin bull market.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, echoed long-term optimism while highlighting Bitcoin’s maturation. On CNBC, he described the market as “a tale of two markets,” where retail traders capitulate amid leverage washouts while institutions quietly increase their exposure.

Hougan forecasted Bitcoin to remain the best-performing large asset over the next decade, though the days of 100x yearly returns have passed. He stated: “We believe Bitcoin will reach $1.3 million by 2035, and I personally think we’re being conservative.”

He concluded that Bitcoin’s lower volatility makes it safer for higher allocations, urging investors to increase exposure rather than sell, saying: “Lower volatility means it’s safer to own more of something.”