You Could’ve Made a 100x Prediction Market Bet on Last Night’s Elections
Prediction markets accurately forecasted numerous U.S. election results, including gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as the New York City mayor's race, consistently for months. A standout exception involved a late lucrative bet on New Jersey Democrat Mikie Sherrill's victory margin. Sherrill defeated her opponent by 13.1%, consistent with prediction market odds priced earlier at extraordinarily low likelihoods. A few Polymarket users who capitalized on this timing earned significant payouts, including a $123,000 and $86,000 return on small investments. This success highlights the predictive power of markets while contrasting traditional polling methods, which still reflected similar results in this specific case.
Unexpected U.S. Election Results
Though last night’s U.S. election results proved surprising to many political pundits—given the extent and scale of Democrats’ victories across the country—prediction markets proclaimed they’d known the outcome for months. Prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, successfully forecasted key races, including the New York City mayor’s race and governor races in both New Jersey and Virginia, by overwhelming margins.
Consistent Victory Margins
Further, those victory margins had been established for months in all three races, leaving relatively few opportunities to make a lucrative bet on election night. However, there was one notable exception: the race in New Jersey. Yesterday morning, Polymarket bettors anticipated that New Jersey Democrat Mikie Sherrill would defeat her Republican opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, by a small percentage margin of votes. An impressive $2.7 million market focused on the expected margin of victory placed Sherrill’s odds of winning by 12-15% at a miniscule 1.1% likelihood. Yet, by the night’s end, Sherrill won by 13.1%, standing out as one of the most remarkable performances during the Democrats’ big night.
Profitable Election Night Bets
The bet on Sherrill’s victory margin turned out to be one of the most lucrative wagers on an election night that prediction market users had largely expected. For instance, a $100 bet at the right moment—specifically at 9:00 a.m. ET—could have resulted in a nearly $10,000 return. Did anyone seize the opportunity? Almost, but not quite. One Polymarket user purchased the correct margin at 10 cents and took the plunge with a $12,960 position, which is now poised to pay over $123,000. Another user, with a $9,891 stake at 11 cents, ultimately profited over $86,000.
Prediction Markets vs. Traditional Polls
While prediction markets have long touted their platforms as superior to traditional forms of data collection, last night served as a reminder of the value of polling data. Polymarket declared its triumph with the bold statement: “polls are dead.” Despite this, bettors who heeded the final poll in the New Jersey governor’s race—which showed Sherrill leading by 12%—stood to benefit greatly from the traditional approach. The final result of a 13.1% victory margin closely aligned with these poll predictions.