Most Reliable Bitcoin Boom Indicator Just Went Off-Script: Expert

Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Tony “The Bull” Severino points out that Bitcoin’s most reliable macroeconomic indicator, the copper-to-gold ratio, has broken its historical pattern. This anomaly came at the very moment when the market typically enters a parabolic phase. As a result, this divergence has disrupted the post-halving narrative and left altcoins without their usual momentum and rotation.

In an analysis released on November 10, Severino characterizes the copper/gold ratio as a “growth versus fear index”. According to him:

• Copper strength reflects economic expansion, higher yields, and a risk-on sentiment.
• Gold outperformance signals recession risks, declining yields, and risk-off behavior.

“When gold is performing better than copper, it typically means economic slowdown and general recession fears,” Severino explains. He adds that copper’s industrial demand ties this ratio closely to the business cycle. However, this time, the ratio’s expected cyclical rise—historically aligning with Bitcoin’s vertical phase—simply did not occur.

Severino argues that the four-year halving cycle may be misattributed as the primary driver of Bitcoin’s patterns. Instead, his analysis shows that the copper/gold ratio’s macroeconomic impact has historically dictated Bitcoin’s parabolic phases. He states:

“I never really thought it was the halving. The same halving date started a bull run in the Nasdaq […] the halving in Bitcoin would not really have any effect on tech stocks.”

This cycle, however, diverged. After briefly reaching a higher high for the first time since 2010, the ratio failed to maintain momentum and instead set another lower low, marking its lowest reading in about 15 years, according to Severino’s chart.

The lack of a risk-on phase in the copper/gold ratio had significant implications for Bitcoin. Historically, this ratio’s upward shifts have signaled the onset of Bitcoin’s final parabolic rally, propelling the cryptocurrency beyond all-time highs. However, this time:

• The Fisher Transform signal—which historically confirmed these risk-on windows—did not follow through.
• Bitcoin has been "meandering sideways" instead of achieving a parabolic climb.

Severino notes: “It was supposed to send Bitcoin into the final stage of its parabolic rally […] we didn’t go parabolic after going above all-time high.”

Severino examines the broader implications:

• The timing of Bitcoin’s peak is unclear without a definitive risk-on impulse.
• Altcoins, which typically thrive during these risk-on phases, have not experienced a rotational “alt-season.” Historically, Bitcoin dominance falls during this phase, but it currently holds key support levels.

Additionally, he highlights an “extremely strong negative correlation” between Bitcoin and the copper/gold ratio. Unlike previous cycles where correlation neared zero during altcoin seasons, such conditions have not materialized this time.

Severino avoids making deterministic predictions but advises caution, citing the ambiguity of the copper/gold trend. While one failed breakout does not define a trend, the ratio remains in the fear zone, and the market should adopt a risk-off stance.

He concludes: “We’re still in the fear sort of side of this ratio […] When this starts to turn back up, we can consider being bullish risk assets again.” This deviation from historical norms may explain Bitcoin’s lackluster performance following its all-time high, underscoring that: “This time, it is genuinely different.”

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $104,486. The macroeconomic dynamics and historical divergences discussed by Severino provide a complex backdrop for Bitcoin’s performance and future trajectory.