Dogecoin Faces Its Toughest Q4 In Years — Can a Late Bounce Save 2025?

Dogecoin price is trading near $0.17, struggling to maintain its structure as 2025 approaches its end. The coin has spent much of this quarter drifting lower, indicating that its usual year-end strength might be absent this time. Traders with expectations of strong Q4 performances from Dogecoin are watching closely, hoping for a late turnaround. However, the market’s tone this year appears very different compared to the past few years.

Dogecoin’s consistent Q4 strength over recent years makes this quarter’s performance surprising. For context, the coin gained 14.2% in 2022, 44.2% in 2023, and an astonishing 176.6% in 2024. However, 2025 has seen this pattern break down, with much of the weakness tracing back to changes in on-chain holder behavior.

Dogecoin’s HODL Waves, a key metric showing the duration coins are held, reflects declining confidence among investors:

• Short-term holders (1–3 months) peaked at 17.47% of supply in January but now hold just 7.24%.
• Long-term holders (1–2 years), holding 40.32% back in July, now control only 21.87% of the supply.

Meanwhile, whale activity further signals reduced market confidence:

• Wallets holding 10 million to 100 million Dogecoin have reduced their holdings sharply since October 11 — dropping from 24.61 billion to 20.33 billion Dogecoin, a reduction of approximately $730 million in value.
• Mid-tier whales (holding 100 million to 1 billion Dogecoin) are the only group accumulating, raising their balances from 27.68 billion to 32.38 billion since late October.

Despite some accumulation, the conflicting behavior among whale groups diminishes momentum, leaving Q4 weaker than any since 2020.

A breakdown in volume dynamics further pressures Dogecoin’s market position. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) chart — which tracks if price moves are supported by real buying — recently broke below its trendline for the first time in 2025.

This indicates that price rebounds lack genuine inflows, meaning bounces could fade quickly. On Gate.io, one of the largest Dogecoin perpetual markets, short liquidation leverage exceeds $776.75 million, dwarfing long positions at just $151.77 million. This 5x imbalance highlights trader sentiment against Dogecoin and raises the risk of continued downward momentum.

On Dogecoin’s weekly chart, the price remains inside an ascending channel formed in April 2025, resting precariously at the lower trendline near $0.17. A breakdown could push prices lower toward $0.15, marking the first structural failure in over seven months.

Nevertheless, the relative strength index (RSI) suggests a glimmer of hope. Between October 6 and November 10, Dogecoin formed a hidden bullish divergence — a potential signal of a rebound. If the $0.17 level holds, the price might rally 33% to $0.22, a key Fibonacci retracement level. A late-year catalyst, such as the potential Bitwise Spot ETF approval by November’s end, could strengthen this rebound.

If Dogecoin reclaims $0.22, the coin could limit its Q4 losses and potentially finish 2025 in mild green. However, failure to hold the $0.17 support could lead to further declines, with the price dropping to $0.15 or even lower by year-end. The market remains precarious, making the next few weeks crucial for Dogecoin’s future trajectory.