Bitcoin Price Prediction. Sellers Defend EMA Cluster As Fed Divide Keeps Bulls On Edge

Bitcoin price today trades near $104,100, struggling to regain momentum after repeated rejections from the short-term EMA cluster and the mid-range Fibonacci zone. Despite a mild recovery, technical and flow data signal lingering bearish pressure as uncertainty over a potential December Federal Reserve rate cut keeps risk sentiment fragile.

Spot Outflows Confirm Weak Risk Appetite

Data from Coinglass shows $56.25 million in net inflows to exchanges on November 12, implying mild distribution as traders moved Bitcoin back into circulation instead of accumulation.

This follows a broader trend of net outflows alternating with small inflows over recent weeks, underscoring weak market conviction.

Open Interest Rises As Futures Volume Drops

Derivatives data reveals a subtle shift in trader behavior. Total open interest increased by 0.52% to $68.2 billion, while futures trading volume decreased by 12.25% to $93.95 billion.

This divergence suggests new positions being opened with lower conviction, likely as defensive hedges rather than outright bullish positions.

The long/short ratio across platforms like Binance and OKX remains above 2.3, showing a continued bullish skew. However, with $108 million in 24-hour liquidations—most being long positions—the leverage buildup creates risks for another wave of forced liquidations if Bitcoin’s price dips below short-term support levels.

Bitcoin Faces EMA Rejection And Channel Resistance

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin remains within a descending channel that has defined price action since early October. Current price trades just below the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-EMA cluster, ranging between $104,000 and $108,500.

Recent rallies into this zone faced rejection, confirming this area as a strong resistance that must be cleared to change the short-term structure.

Key levels:

• Resistance:
  • 0.382 Fibonacci retracement ($105,449)
  • 0.5 Fibonacci zone ($107,490)
• Support:
  • Immediate: $102,924 (0.236 retracement)
  • Psychological: $100,000
  • Deeper support: $98,850 (lower channel boundary)

The RSI sits in a neutral zone, reflecting indecision, while momentum remains flat. Without a breakout above $107,500, consolidation or a retest of lower supports seems likely.

Macro Pressure: Rate-Cut Divide Limits Upside

The Federal Reserve’s discussion over a possible December rate cut has introduced fresh uncertainty into risk markets. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now assign a 66.9% probability of a rate cut during the December 9–10 meeting, down from greater confidence previously.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks that a cut “is not a done deal” have further dampened optimism. Analysts, such as Min Jung of Presto Research, caution that even if the cut is confirmed, much of the optimism “may already be priced in,” suggesting limited near-term upside unless liquidity meaningfully improves.

Outlook. Will Bitcoin Go Up?

Bitcoin’s future remains at a crossroads:

Bullish case: A decisive close above $107,500, supported by rising volume and improved spot flows, could push Bitcoin towards $110,000–$112,400, aligning with the upper Fibonacci and channel resistance zone.

Bearish case: Failure to hold $102,900–$104,000 may lead to a decline toward $98,800, where the next demand pocket aligns with the lower channel boundary.

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