Bitcoin Price Falls to $103,000 As Government Starts to Reopen, Trump Weighs Tariff Checks
Bitcoin price dropped to $103,459, trading below $104,000 after briefly reclaiming $106,000 earlier in the week. The decline comes amidst macroeconomic and technical factors, including President Donald Trump's proposal of $2,000 'tariff dividend' checks funded by tariff revenues, aiming to reduce the $37 trillion national debt and potentially stimulating liquidity. Senate Democrats and Republicans approved a measure to reopen the federal government, ending a 41-day shutdown. On the technical front, Bitcoin faces resistance at $109,400 and $111,000, with potential growth towards $129,000 if it breaks above $116,000. Institutional interest remains strong, with significant purchases by corporate holders, while macro conditions and government actions impact sentiment. Structural factors in derivatives and ETF flows are also influencing Bitcoin's trajectory. Despite short-term uncertainties, long-term indicators, including supply scarcity and rising production costs, suggest a potentially shallower bear market in the future.
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Bitcoin Price Volatility Amid Policy and Market Dynamics
Bitcoin price fell below $104,000 today after briefly reclaiming $106,000 earlier this week. This follows traders weighing a mix of macro tailwinds and technical headwinds, including President Donald Trump’s plan to send Americans $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks. Announced on Truth Social, the policy proposes paying most Americans a cash rebate funded by tariff revenues, returning "trillions of dollars" collected from trade tariffs to alleviate the nation’s $37 trillion debt.
Market Interpretations and Stimulus Comparisons
Markets view Trump’s policy as a fresh liquidity injection, akin to the 2020-era stimulus that fueled Bitcoin’s last bull run. Analysts at The Kobeissi Letter observed, "Rate cuts, record highs, AI, and stimulus checks — buckle up." Many Bitcoin commentators humorously remarked on the return of the "free Bitcoin" era. As of now, Bitcoin’s price is $103,459.
U.S. Government Funding Measures Impact Markets
In the meantime, Senate Democrats and Republicans joined forces to approve a funding measure to reopen the federal government, ending a 41-day shutdown. Despite failing to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies, the 60-40 vote moves to the House for passage. The legislation, expected to be signed by President Trump, restores federal services and worker pay but has fueled intra-party debate among Democrats, potentially affecting market sentiment.
Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis
Bitcoin’s technical structure remains precariously balanced. The $99,000 level, bolstered by the 55-week exponential moving average, serves as significant support. On the upside, Fibonacci resistance at $109,400 and a stronger barrier near $111,000 provide key hurdles. A breakout above $116,000 could pave the way for a surge toward $129,000, aligning with Bitcoin’s broadening wedge pattern.
Institutional Investment and Macro Influence
Institutional interest in Bitcoin remains steadfast. Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, recently purchased 487 BTC for $49.9 million, raising its holdings to over 641,000 coins (worth approximately $47.5 billion). Meanwhile, macroeconomic conditions, including hopes for an end to the U.S. government shutdown, are boosting risk assets like Bitcoin. However, any renewed government dysfunction could push prices toward $96,000 or even $93,000.
Derivatives, ETF Flows, and Structural Dynamics
Structural factors in derivatives and ETF flows continue to shape Bitcoin’s price trajectory. While a widening futures premium restricts supply by pulling coins off exchanges, negative funding and compressed basis could apply downward pressure on spot prices. The ETF market witnessed nearly $1 billion outflows in early November, and traders remain alert for shifts that could alter hedging flows and liquidity.
Long-Term Signals and Scarcity Outlook
Despite short-term uncertainties, long-term signals for Bitcoin remain bullish. Rising production costs and an expanding base of long-term holders suggest that future bear markets may be shallower. With only 5% of Bitcoin’s supply left to mine before the 2028 halving, growing scarcity coincides with potential macro liquidity expansion. These dynamics underline Bitcoin’s structural strengths moving forward.