We asked ChatGPT when Bitcoin will crash to $50,000; Here’s what it said
Bitcoin's (BTC) price struggles as it hovers above the $100,000 mark, with concerns of a potential crash to $50,000. OpenAI's ChatGPT highlights fading momentum, tightened liquidity, rising sell pressure, and ETF outflows as key reasons for a possible drop. Projections suggest a crash could occur between April and August 2026, consistent with historical patterns following Bitcoin halvings. Technical indicators, including RSI and SMA trends, signal a bearish outlook. Bitcoin currently trades at $103,411 with downside pressure and limited support, indicating a fragile medium- to long-term trend.
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Bitcoin's Struggle Above $100,000 and Concerns of a Potential Crash
Bitcoin (BTC) is facing challenges as it struggles to maintain its position above the crucial $100,000 support level. Concerns are mounting that the cryptocurrency could potentially crash to $50,000. Insights provided by OpenAI’s ChatGPT emphasize the possibility of this decline occurring in the coming months. ChatGPT highlights that Bitcoin’s momentum is fading after its failure to hold above the $110,000 level, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) cooling to neutral levels and the price hovering just above its 200-day moving average (MA) at $87,000.
Macro and Investor Trends Add To Sell Pressure
From a macroeconomic perspective, ChatGPT points out the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts and tightening liquidity, which could negatively affect risk assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, rising inflows into crypto exchanges signal increasing sell pressure from investors. These conditions raise the possibility of a drop to $50,000, which could result from factors like tightening liquidity, ETF outflows, institutional profit-taking, and breaches of key support levels at $87,000 and $80,000. Such a cascade of events could trigger panic selling, reminiscent of the declines seen in 2018 and 2022.
Historical Patterns and Timeline for a Possible Crash
ChatGPT suggests that if these risks align, the potential crash could occur between April and August 2026, which aligns with Bitcoin’s historical pattern of peaking 12–18 months post-halving. From a projected peak near $130,000 to $150,000, a typical correction of 60% to 70% would likely bring Bitcoin prices back to the $50,000 range. However, ChatGPT also notes that if macroeconomic conditions remain stable, Bitcoin may instead experience a milder pullback to the $70,000 to $80,000 range before resuming another uptrend.
Technical Indicators Supporting the $50,000 Possibility
Alongside macroeconomic factors, technical indicators also support the potential crash scenario. Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez expressed in a post on November 11 that Bitcoin’s next major market bottom could occur in roughly 328 days, placing the timeline around October 2026. According to his analysis, Bitcoin is following a cyclical pattern seen in previous market cycles, where bull market peaks are followed by prolonged drawdowns lasting over a year before recovery begins. Martinez's projected bottom range of $38,000 to $50,000 aligns with historical retracement levels after earlier bull runs.
Current Price Analysis and Short-Term Outlook
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $103,411, reflecting a 1.4% decrease over the past 24 hours, but showing a 1.3% weekly gain. The cryptocurrency’s price has fallen below crucial levels, including the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $112,216 and the 200-day SMA at $105,751, confirming a bearish short- to medium-term trend. The 50-day SMA is acting as an overhead resistance that reinforces downward pressure, while the small gap above the 200-day SMA keeps the long-term uptrend technically alive but fragile. Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI remains neutral at 47.76, indicating no strong momentum shifts for either a strong rebound or further selling.