Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Still at Risk of a Sub-$100K Drop Amid a Weak Bounce
Bitcoin is attempting a recovery and trading around $105K after a sharp downtrend. The price faces significant resistance between $106K–$110K, with technical indicators like the RSI and moving averages suggesting weak momentum. A breakout above $110K could signal continuation, but failure might lead to a retest of the $100K level or lower. On-chain data indicates a drop in active addresses, highlighting weak network participation and raising concerns about the sustainability of the rally.
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BTC Attempts Recovery Amid Challenges
Bitcoin is attempting a recovery after the recent shakeout, trading around the $105K mark. The bounce came after a steep demand downtrend, but it now faces strong overhead resistance and weakening on-chain participation. Buyers are stepping in, but the structure suggests the move might only be a relief rally unless follow-through volume steps up.
Daily Chart Analysis
The daily chart shows price reacting from a major demand zone near $100K. After a strong rejection from the $114K region, BTC printed a lower low and is now retesting a previous breakdown level, which has turned into a significant supply zone around $106K–$110K.
Both the 100-day (yellow) and 200-day (blue) moving averages have flipped above the current price, turning into dynamic resistance. Moreover, the RSI remains below 50, indicating weak momentum for now. If buyers can reclaim the $110K order block and hold above it, the next resistance lies around $114K. Failure to reclaim this level could push the price back into the $100K zone or even lower.
4-Hour Structure Insights
The 4-hour chart shows BTC unfolding within a falling wedge pattern, which it is attempting to break out of. The price has climbed back into a short-term resistance zone near $106K after a clean reaction from the $100K demand zone.
The RSI has also cooled off slightly after reaching near-overbought levels, showing signs of consolidation. A clean breakout above the wedge and a strong close above $110K would signal potential continuation. However, rejection at this zone could prompt another visit to the $100K level.
On-Chain Activity: A Decline in Active Addresses
On-chain data continues to show a concerning drop in active addresses. Despite Bitcoin holding above $100K, the number of unique daily participants on the network has been falling steadily since early 2025.
This divergence between price and network activity suggests that the current rally is not broadly supported by increased usage or transaction volume. This drop in active addresses could indicate weak retail or organic demand. If this trend continues, it raises questions about the sustainability of current price levels, especially in the absence of new participants entering the market.