Solana Drops 4.9% Breaking Below Key Support as Alameda Unlocks Continue

Market Overview: Solana (SOL) faced renewed selling pressure, dropping from $160.72 to $152.81, marking a 4.9% decline despite ongoing institutional support through exchange-traded fund (ETF) products. The drop occurred on elevated trading volume, which ran 17.25% above the seven-day average. The decline was driven by active repositioning, reflecting more deliberate selling strategies rather than passive drift.

Selling intensified following a previously scheduled token unlock by bankrupt Alameda Research and the FTX estate on November 11. According to analyst MartyParty, approximately 193,000 SOL tokens, worth $30 million, were released as part of ongoing monthly vesting programs. Since November 2023, over 8 million tokens have been gradually distributed under bankruptcy oversight, with most tokens being sold on major exchanges for creditor repayment. Alameda’s systematic token releases are expected to create predictable downward price pressure in the coming months.

Despite the selling pressure, institutional demand for Solana-based ETFs remains robust. For instance, Solana spot ETFs recorded their tenth consecutive day of inflows, amounting to a weekly total of $336 million. Large financial entities like Rothschild Investment and PNC Financial Services disclosed new holdings in Solana-linked products. Additionally, Grayscale introduced options trading for its Solana Trust ETF (GSOL), providing institutional traders with advanced hedging tools for risk management.

Solana operates at the intersection of supply pressure from token unlocks and institutional demand. Alameda’s systematic token releases continue to weigh heavily on the price, with 5 million tokens still locked or staked. Smaller unlocks are planned monthly through 2028, per pre-2021 agreements. On the other hand, institutional accumulation at lower levels, fueled by ETF inflows (e.g., Bitwise's BSOL with $118 million this week and staking yields above 7% annually), suggests underlying resilience despite bearish conditions.

Technical analysis shows bearish momentum accelerating, with SOL breaking critical support at $156 due to significant selling volume between 15:00-16:00 UTC. During this period, SOL collapsed from $155.40 to $152.86 on a trading volume that was 123% above the hourly average. This breakdown confirmed lower support levels and initiated a descending channel targeting the $152.50-$152.80 demand zone. However, ETF-driven accumulation might provide support at current levels.

Support/Resistance: The primary support stands at $152.80, with secondary support at $150. Immediate resistance is now at $156 (former support) and $160. Volume Analysis: 24-hour trading volume surged 17% above the weekly average during the breakdown, reflecting institutional repositioning, not retail capitulation. Chart Patterns: A descending channel formation with lower highs at $156.71 and $156.13 suggests bearish continuation unless $160 is breached. Targets & Risk/Reward: If $152.80 support holds, prices could bounce toward $160-$165 resistance. Conversely, if $150 breaks, downside targets shift toward $145 support levels.

CoinDesk 5 Index Performance: The CoinDesk 5 Index declined 1.85% in a volatile session, falling from $1,792.49 to $1,759.24. The $33.25 drop occurred within a $74.31 trading range as bearish momentum intensified following the 15:00-16:00 UTC breakdown. The downward move was confirmed by significant institutional trading activity breaking key support at $1,767. Disclaimer: Portions of this article were generated using AI tools and reviewed by the editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to standards. For more details, refer to CoinDesk's full AI Policy.