Circle’s USDC Keeps Climbing; William Blair Reiterates Outperform After 3Q Results
William Blair reaffirmed its outperform rating on Circle (CRCL) shares after better-than-expected Q3 results. Although shares dropped 3.9% pre-market, analyst Andrew Jeffrey emphasized USDC as a stablecoin leader, central to programmable money. He sees long-term growth amid challenges for rivals. Circle's infrastructure initiatives, like Arc with 100 participants and a planned mainnet debut in 2026, show progress. Transaction volume surged, with TPV up 101x to $3.4 billion annually, driving higher fees. Circle now projects 2025 transaction revenue of $90M–$100M, exceeding prior estimates, signaling growth potential.
Circle's Q3 Earnings Outperform Expectations
Investment bank William Blair reiterated its outperform rating on Circle (CRCL) shares after the stablecoin issuer's third-quarter results exceeded both the bank's and Wall Street expectations. However, Circle's shares were trading 3.9% lower in the pre-market on Wednesday, priced around $94.50.
USDC as the Stablecoin Standard
Analyst Andrew Jeffrey continues to regard USDC as the likely stablecoin standard, positioning Circle at the forefront of the programmable money revolution. While the market's muted reaction reflects Circle's premium valuation and limited short-term catalysts, Jeffrey suggests investors utilize any dip in share price to increase positions. He argues that rival proprietary stablecoins will face challenges in matching USDC's scale and liquidity.
Progress in Circle's Infrastructure Initiatives
Jeffrey highlighted steady progress in Circle’s infrastructure projects, including its orchestration layer (CPN) and layer-1 blockchain Arc. Both initiatives have gained traction as the company expanded its ecosystem and enhanced tokenization capabilities. Notably, Arc now includes 100 participants, with plans for a mainnet launch in 2026 and potential exploration of a native token.
Transaction Volumes and Revenue Growth
Transaction volumes showed sharp growth, with trailing 12-month total payment volume (TPV) rising 101x to an annualized $3.4 billion. This significant increase drove higher fees for the company. Circle now projects 2025 transaction revenue of $90 million–$100 million, which is above earlier guidance of $75 million–$85 million. William Blair views this growth as pivotal to scaling and diversifying Circle’s revenue streams.