Bitcoin Sinks 15% as S&P 500 Gains 7%, Breaking 4-Year Correlation
Bitcoin (BTC) is at a pivotal market crossroads with opposing views from bearish technical analysis and bullish on-chain data. Analyst Ali Martinez suggests BTC may have entered a 'macro downtrend,' drawing parallels to past cycles with a possible peak on October 26, 2025. Conversely, Santiment data highlights a divergence between crypto and traditional equities, citing Bitcoin’s 15% decline in three months despite gold and S&P 500 gains, which could indicate an undervaluation of Bitcoin. Additionally, Binance's $120 billion reserve, including an all-time high $42.8 billion in USDT, showcases market stability. Bitcoin currently trades at $103,496 after a recent pullback. Market interpretations on Bitcoin’s future direction remain divided.
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Bitcoin at a Critical Market Inflection Point
Bitcoin (BTC) has reached a crucial juncture in the market. There is a sharp divergence of opinions between bearish technical analysts and bullish on-chain data. Traders are debating whether Bitcoin is currently in a “macro downtrend” or experiencing a “momentum build-up.”
The Bearish Technical Thesis: A ‘Macro Downtrend’
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez suggests that Bitcoin may have entered a macro downtrend. By comparing its current price movement with the 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 cycles, Martinez posits that Bitcoin’s cycle peaked on October 26, 2025.
“If this Bitcoin $BTC cycle mirrors 2015–2018 or 2018–2022, the top was on Oct 26, and a macro downtrend may have already begun.” — Ali (@ali_charts), November 12, 2025
Historical cycle patterns indicate that Bitcoin often embarks on a prolonged bear trend after its cycle peak, reinforcing the bearish technical outlook.
The Bullish Fundamental Divergence: A 4-Year Correlation Break
While Martinez’s technical analysis suggests a bearish outlook, on-chain data paints a different picture. Cryptocurrency analysis platform Santiment highlights a decoupling of Bitcoin from traditional equities, breaking a correlation that had lasted for four years.
Over the last three months:
- Gold has risen by 21%.
- The S&P 500 has gained 7%.
- Bitcoin, however, suffered a 15% decline.
Santiment argues that this negative performance reflects Bitcoin’s undervaluation and points to its potential for future gains.
Exchange Reserves Prove Bitcoin’s Stability
Amid the market uncertainty, exchange reserves present evidence of Bitcoin’s stability. Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted Binance’s total reserve holdings, which amount to $120 billion, including a USDT reserve reaching an all-time high of $42.8 billion.
Meanwhile, BTC holdings on Binance stood at 548,000 Bitcoins. Many analysts view these reserves as a reflection of Binance’s ability to withstand volatility and as a solid foundation for stability in the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin’s Current Performance and Market Context
According to TradingView data, Bitcoin was trading at $103,496 at the time of writing, having experienced a 4.67% pullback in the past 24 hours. Despite the recent drop, analysts remain divided on whether this reflects a temporary correction or a prolonged downtrend.
Disclaimer
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. This content does not constitute financial advice. Readers should exercise caution before taking any action related to the companies or cryptocurrencies mentioned.