TRUMP Coin Says Goodbye to Bitcoin, Charts Its Own Path Toward the End of 2025
The article discusses the recent market behavior of OFFICIAL TRUMP, a meme coin showing short-term recovery signs after weeks of decline. Despite its cautious trading, weak correlation with Bitcoin (-0.44) and lack of trader enthusiasm are limiting its potential. Bitcoin’s bullish Q4 trend may intensify TRUMP's downside pressure. Futures data highlights a bearish outlook due to prevailing short positions, signaling waning investor confidence. However, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator shows potential for a brief recovery rally. TRUMP's ascending wedge chart pattern suggests a likely bearish breakdown towards $6.24, although a short-term surge to $9.00 is possible if CMF holds. Broader market trends remain bearish as 2025 approaches.
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Overview of TRUMP's Short-Term Recovery
OFFICIAL TRUMP is showing signs of a short-term recovery after weeks of steady decline, but the movement might not be as promising as it initially appears. The meme coin is trading cautiously as both Bitcoin’s rally and the absence of trader enthusiasm are limiting its upside potential. Current market patterns suggest that this late-year recovery may, in fact, set the stage for a deeper correction in Q4.
TRUMP's Weak Correlation with Bitcoin
OFFICIAL TRUMP’s correlation with Bitcoin is notably weak, displaying a value of -0.44. This means that TRUMP’s price tends to move inversely to Bitcoin’s performance. Historically, Bitcoin performs strongly in Q4, which could pose a challenge for TRUMP. While the decoupling has shielded TRUMP during Bitcoin’s past dips, it now leaves the meme coin vulnerable as the broader market strengthens without its participation.
- Source: TradingView
Funding Rate Reflects Trader Skepticism
The funding rate provides a concerning signal for TRUMP's macro outlook. Short positions have dominated the market longer than longs, which reflects growing trader skepticism. This imbalance highlights fading investor confidence and reveals a lack of directional bias—crucial factors for any sustainable recovery. Without renewed support from long-term holders, liquidations could further amplify downside volatility in the coming weeks.
- Source: Coinglass
Potential Hope from the Chaikin Money Flow Indicator
Despite its macro weaknesses, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator offers a potential glimmer of hope. Currently hovering near the -10.0 level, this metric has often marked accumulation zones in the past, where buyers temporarily step in before broader corrections resume. Technical patterns on the charts, such as an ascending wedge, hint at a possible short-term bounce before the dominant bearish structure reasserts itself.
- Source: TradingView
Ascending Wedge Indicates Bearish Risks for TRUMP
OFFICIAL TRUMP has been trading within an ascending wedge for the past two and a half weeks, with its price around $7.86. This formation typically signals bearish movements.
- If selling pressure heightens, TRUMP could break below critical support, potentially declining 19% to hit
$6.24. - Alternatively, if CMF strength holds, TRUMP could bounce off the lower trend line, testing
$8.36and reaching as high as$9.00, invalidating the short-term bearish outlook.
While there is potential for recovery, the broader downtrend heading into 2025 remains intact.
- Source: TradingView