Moon or Doom: Will Ethereum Defy Bitcoin Drop and Bearish Signals?

As the crypto market loses steam and the price of Bitcoin falls to lows not seen since early summer, traders are eyeing up alternative assets. The key question is: Where does the price of Ethereum (ETH) go next?

Ethereum, the second-largest crypto asset by market cap, opened today at $3,415.8 and climbed to $3,473.2—a modest 1.69% gain. However, this small rise isn't enough to calm tensions, as traders remain uncertain about ETH's future trajectory.

Prediction markets show conflicting signals:

• On Myriad, users have placed 65% odds on Ethereum pumping to $4,000 before dropping to $2,500.
• Another prediction market on Myriad suggests a 79.1% probability that ETH won't reach $5,000 by year's end.

These differences reflect how significantly the crypto market has weakened over recent months. The Bitcoin Dominance Index has surged to 60%, indicating a "Bitcoin Season" where BTC gains market share, squeezing altcoins like Ethereum.

The Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 24, signaling high levels of fear, down from 38 last month. When Bitcoin experiences declines, traders tend to hedge their positions by moving funds into less volatile assets like Bitcoin, stocks, or commodities. This creates additional downward pressure on volatile altcoins such as Ethereum. Traders are questioning whether ETH is headed for a new high or imminent doom.

Ethereum has been trending downward after failing to hold above $3,800 in late October. Currently, ETH is testing a support zone at $3,400. Key indicators provide the following insights:

• The Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 41.46, shows bearish momentum. RSI below 50 indicates selling pressure, while levels around 41 leave room for further declines.
• The Average Directional Index (ADX) stands at 32.66, highlighting a strong bearish trend.
• Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) show a bullish golden cross setup, with the 50-day EMA still above the 200-day EMA, but the price has dropped below both EMAs, indicating short-term weakness.

The charts suggest a potential "death cross" if the gap between EMAs closes further—another bearish signal.

Despite bearish signals, there are arguments for a potential ETH rally:

• Whale accumulation: Large investors accumulated 1.64 million ETH in October (valued at $6.4 billion), showing confidence in the asset despite its recent 7% drop.
• The upcoming Fusaka upgrade on December 3 aims to significantly improve Ethereum's scalability, a development that could generate positive momentum.

For ETH to reach $4,000, it must break through the current resistance trendline at $3,600-$3,800. If market conditions improve — such as a dovish Fed stance or a Bitcoin consolidation — a rally could materialize.

Technical indicators heavily favor a bearish scenario:

• The Squeeze Momentum Indicator signals a bearish impulse, suggesting ETH could break down further.
• The Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVP) shows ETH is trading below its highest volume zone, emphasizing seller dominance.
• A breakdown of $3,400 support could lead to a drop to $2,800-$2,500, where an ascending trendline and 200-day EMA may act as a floor. This implies a potential 19-28% decline in ETH’s price.

Importantly, whales who purchased ETH in October are likely positioning for a Q1 2026 recovery, signaling that the short-term outlook remains bearish for now.

Key price levels to watch:

• Immediate Resistance: $3,600 (descending trendline)
• Strong Resistance: $3,800 (former support zone)
• Immediate Support: $3,400 (current battle zone)
• Strong Support: $2,800 (ascending trendline and psychological level)

While whale activity and the EMA setup provide some hope for the bulls, the alignment of bearish indicators—ADX confirming trend strength, RSI below 50, bearish squeeze momentum, and VPVP below control—suggests that gravity currently holds the advantage.

In conclusion, ETH is likely headed toward a test of $3,400 support, followed by a possible grind lower to $2,500-$2,800 before finding a solid recovery zone.