Bitcoin Eyes Major Death Cross: Potential Price Scenarios
Bitcoin experienced a sharp price drop on Tuesday, reaching a low of $102,422 before stabilizing at $104,880, marking a 0.23% daily loss but a 2.80% weekly gain. Market focus is on the potential emergence of a bearish 'death cross' — when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average — signaling weak short-term momentum. This would be the fourth death cross since 2023, with previous instances marking major price bottoms. Key price levels between $100,000 and $108,000 are acting as support, while resistance lies at $111,000 and $116,000. Market sentiment remains cautious but traders are monitoring for increased volatility and a possible local bottom forming near $100,000.
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Bitcoin's Recent Price Movement
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline on Tuesday, dropping to a low of $102,422, after previously trading at $107,482. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was down 0.23% over the last 24 hours to $104,880, but remains up 2.80% weekly. This price movement follows a period of relative market inactivity after October's flash crash.
The Bearish Death Cross
A bearish death cross—defined by the short-term moving average (MA 50) falling below the long-term moving average (MA 200)—is projected to occur in the coming days. This would be the second death cross in 2025, with the first occurring in April. Historically, death crosses have sometimes indicated a major market bottom.
Kyle Chassé, a notable market analyst, commented on Twitter:
HUGE!!! 4th Death Cross incoming for $BTC. The last 3 marked major bottoms. If history repeats, we are going HIGHER!!! 🔥
Historical Perspective on Death Crosses
If confirmed, this would be Bitcoin's fourth death cross since 2023. The previous occurrences were documented in September 2023, August 2024, and April 2025. Although these indicators suggest weak short-term momentum, they have also historically coincided with market bottoms, raising questions about whether Bitcoin will follow a similar pattern this time.
Key Price Levels and Market Analysis
At its current price of $104,880, Bitcoin is trading between the 0.85 and 0.75 cost-basis quantiles (estimated between $108,500 and $100,600, respectively), according to Glassnode. These levels are crucial, as they have historically acted as key support and resistance zones.
Traders are closely monitoring these levels for any decisive break, as it could determine Bitcoin's next directional trend.
Potential Volatility and Support Zones
Bitcoin might witness increased volatility if prices surpass key resistance levels of $111,000 and $116,000. Meanwhile, it remains within a critical inflection zone, with market sentiment signaling a possible local bottom forming around $100,000.
In the midterm, the range between $100,000 and $108,000 is expected to serve as a strong support zone, influencing price dynamics in the upcoming weeks.