Sour crypto mood could fuel an ‘unexpected rally’ this month: Santiment

Crypto markets could experience an “unexpected November rally” as current indicators suggest traders are becoming more fearful. This fear often leads to a transfer of money from weaker hands to long-term accumulators. According to Santiment's X post on Wednesday, social media sentiment surrounding Bitcoin (BTC) is evenly split between bullish and bearish views, while Ether (ETH) sees slightly more than 50% bullish sentiment. However, the overall social media engagement is lower than usual for these tokens.

For XRP, less than half of the comments on social media are bullish, marking one of the most “fearful moments of 2025” for the token. Analysts suggest that this heightened fear could lead to a significant sell-off, which might actually benefit the broader cryptocurrency market in the long term.

Crypto market sentiment remains fearful, influenced by a variety of macroeconomic factors. Traders are moving towards assets with clearer connections to economic policies and credit flows as the end of the US Government shutdown looms. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall market sentiment, scored a mere 15 out of 100 on Thursday, indicating “extreme fear”, the lowest level since February.

Joe Consorti, head of Bitcoin growth at Horizon, notes that trader sentiment is at the same low levels seen in 2022 when Bitcoin was trading around $18,000, referencing data from Glassnode. Despite this negative outlook, Santiment highlighted that souring moods could be positive news for patient investors, potentially driving an unexpected market rally as long-term holders (diamond-handed investors) capitalize on weaker hands' sell-offs.

Santiment suggested that negative sentiment, particularly towards top-market-cap cryptos, might signify the market approaching capitulation. They commented, “Once retail sells off, key stakeholders scoop up the dropped coins and pump prices. It’s not a matter of if, but when this will next happen.” This highlights the likelihood of a pricing rebound resulting from larger investors taking advantage of panic-driven sell-offs.

Samson Mow, founder of Bitcoin infrastructure company Jan3, echoed the positive long-term outlook, stating that “newish buyers” are primarily responsible for current selling pressure, while long-term holders are using the opportunity to accumulate more Bitcoin. He explained that these sellers are short-term speculators, not principle-driven Bitcoin buyers, and their depletion strengthens the position of HODLers with conviction. Mow confidently predicted, “2026 is going to be a great year. Plan accordingly.”