Bitwise’s exec says 2026 will be crypto’s real bull year, here’s why
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts a crypto market boom in 2026, attributing it to strong fundamentals like institutional investment, regulatory progress, stablecoins, and tokenization. He remains confident despite no late-2025 rally, avoiding a potential pullback. Hougan believes Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana could reach new highs by 2026 but at more conservative levels compared to other predictions. He states crypto-native retail investors are currently disillusioned due to recent downturns, while traditional retail remains active, driven by spot crypto ETF inflows.
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Confident Prediction for 2026 Crypto Market Boom
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan expressed confidence that the crypto market will boom in 2026, emphasizing that the absence of a late-2025 rally supports this prediction. Speaking at The Bridge conference in New York, Hougan noted that a rally fitting the four-year cycle thesis in 2025 would typically signal a bear market in 2026, similar to 2018 and 2022. However, the lack of such a rally strengthens the case for market growth in 2026.
Key Drivers for Market Growth
Hougan highlighted the ongoing momentum in Bitcoin (BTC) debasement trade, stablecoins, and tokenization as significant drivers for market growth. He also pointed to Uniswap’s fee switch proposal introduced on Monday, predicting that it will renew interest in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols for the coming year. "I think the underlying fundamentals are just so sound," said Hougan, citing factors like institutional investment, regulatory progress, and advancements in tokenization.
Bitcoin and Crypto Price Targets for 2026
Hougan remains optimistic that Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), and Solana (SOL) could reach new price highs by 2026, although not as ambitious as predictions from Maelstrom Fund CIO Arthur Hayes and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee. Hayes and Lee had previously forecasted that Bitcoin and Ether might hit $250,000 and $15,000, respectively, by the end of the year. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $101,762 and Ether at $3,416, requiring increases of 145% and 340% to meet those targets.
Challenges for Crypto-Native Retail Investors
Discussing the current market pullback, Hougan attributed it to 'crypto-native retail' investors. He blamed recent large-scale sales, stating many early investors have faced "compressed upside." Moreover, expectations for a bull cycle similar to 2020-2021 have not materialized. "Crypto-native retail is depressed," Hougan explained, pointing to setbacks such as the downfall of FTX, the memecoin debacle, and 10/10 liquidations.
The Resilience of Traditional Retail Interest
While crypto-native retail investors remain cautious, Hougan observed a booming interest from traditional retail investors or TradFi retail. He cited increased inflows into spot crypto ETFs over the past two years as evidence. "Traditional retail, like my uncle, he’s moving into crypto. That part of retail is still alive," said Hougan, demonstrating the sustained interest from this group despite broader market challenges.