Bitcoin price risks deeper losses as Nasdaq correlation turns one-sided: Wintermute

Bitcoin price is showing signs of exhaustion as it reacts more strongly to Nasdaq losses than rallies. According to market observations, Bitcoin falls harder than Nasdaq gains, highlighting a bearish skew. This trend indicates capital rotation to tech stocks and weaker crypto liquidity, which amplify the downside risk. Key levels to watch include support at $98K and resistance at $107K, reflecting mixed momentum signals.

A Nov. 13 report from market maker Wintermute notes that Bitcoin is reacting more strongly to declines in the Nasdaq-100 than to its rallies. This bearish skew reflects investor exhaustion rather than euphoria, despite Bitcoin trading above the $100,000 psychological level.

Wintermute's data shows Bitcoin's high correlation with the Nasdaq at about 0.8, but its reaction to stock market movements has become asymmetric: falling harder during downturns and showing muted gains during rallies.

This pattern, often called negative performance skew, was last observed during the 2022 bear market. It suggests exhaustion at market bottoms rather than strength near market tops. The bearish trend is driven by two factors:

1. Institutional and retail capital shifting away from cryptocurrency to mega-cap tech stocks.
2. Weakened crypto liquidity, caused by slower stablecoin issuance, reduced ETF inflows, and a lack of market depth.

When stock prices retreat, these factors combine to amplify Bitcoin’s downward sensitivity to negative movements.

Despite these challenges, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience. Trading at less than 20% below its peak, the digital asset shows that long-term confidence in its strength remains strong, even though current sentiment is subdued. This resilience suggests that some investors still view Bitcoin as a viable asset despite the lukewarm market environment.

Bitcoin is trading at $103,615 with moderate buying activity. The asset remains below the midline of its Bollinger Bands, indicating cautious market sentiment. Most moving averages point to a slight bearish bias, yet the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at approximately 43 shows neutral momentum.

Meanwhile, technical indicators offer mixed signals:

• The MACD highlights selling pressure.
• The Momentum (10) indicator flashes a buy signal, suggesting potential short-term rebound if sentiment stabilizes.

Key technical levels:

• Resistance at $107,000, marked by the 20-day SMA.
• Support near $98,000, aligned with the lower Bollinger Band.

A close above $107,000 could pave the way for a move towards $110,000, while a failure to hold $100,000 may result in a significant correction.