Will The Fed’s December Fight Over Rates Spark XRP’s Next Big Move?

The Federal Reserve is heading into one of its most politically and economically sensitive meetings in years. On one side, policymakers like Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic want to keep interest rates high due to inflation staying above target for almost five years and showing signs of resurgence. However, Governor Stephen Miran contends that housing-driven disinflation is underway and maintaining high rates could harm the job market. The debate between these two perspectives has financial markets caught in the middle, with Fed funds futures pricing a roughly 60% chance of a quarter-point rate cut.

The split view inside the Fed directly impacts crypto markets, including XRP. Lower rates and a weaker dollar typically push investors toward riskier assets like altcoins, while a hawkish Fed does the opposite by strengthening the dollar and tightening liquidity. XRP’s current price action reflects this uncertainty, consolidating tightly near the Bollinger Band midline, awaiting a clear macro catalyst from the Fed's December decision.

Bostic argues inflation remains the bigger threat, highlighting that price pressures are unlikely to ease significantly before 2026 due to added tariff-driven costs. Conversely, Miran believes disinflation is already in motion, particularly due to housing, which filters into inflation indexes with a lag. Miran insists current rates are overly restrictive and advocates for quick and aggressive cuts to protect employment.

The XRP/USD daily chart shows a transition from a controlled downtrend in August to early October into a base-building phase after a mid-October capitulation. Price stabilized at key support near 2.30–2.35, with the Bollinger bands narrowing, signaling volatility compression. Currently, XRP trades around 2.45, sitting slightly above the 20-day SMA at 2.44, marking a shift from “oversold” to “neutral.” Narrow bands suggest stored energy, awaiting release.

Critical downside levels include:

• 2.30–2.35: Strong horizontal support. A decisive close below signals base failure.
• 2.19: Lower Bollinger band, marking potential for volatility expansion downward.
• October capitulation low: Breaking this could lead to a deeper bearish leg.

Upside levels include:

• 2.70: Upper Bollinger band and first major resistance. A breakout would confirm upward volatility.
• 2.90–3.10: Next resistance zone, signaling profit-taking opportunities.
• 3.50–5.00: Extended targets in a sustained uptrend scenario.

XRP is confined between a support zone at 2.30–2.35 and resistance near 2.70, with the Fed’s decision likely determining the next major move.

In a dovish Fed scenario where Miran's views prevail:

• A rate cut would likely spark a risk-on rally, pushing XRP to 2.70 and possibly toward 2.90–3.10.
• Sustained macro improvements could lead to a test of 3.50 or higher.

In a hawkish Fed scenario where Bostic’s caution dominates:

• Risk assets, like XRP, could retreat, breaking below 2.40 and retesting the 2.30–2.35 support zone.
• Failing that level could trigger a move toward 2.19 or the October lows.

Currently, XRP is not fully pricing in an aggressive easing cycle, as evidenced by tight volatility and modest green candles. This suggests:

1. Downside risk remains if the Fed does not cut rates.
2. Upside potential exists if the Fed signals a dovish shift.

Traders should monitor the 20-day SMA slope, Bollinger band width, and interim macro events for cues. XRP appears to be in a coil before the catalyst zone, with the Fed's decision likely determining whether it breaks higher or revisits recent lows.