Who Is Selling Bitcoin ? Why BTC Price Is Dropping ?
Long-term Bitcoin holders are gradually taking profits, reflecting a more mature and stable market cycle. Analysts highlight that this selling pressure is cautious, not panic-driven, and marks a shift in market dynamics. On-chain data shows a gradual decline in Bitcoin held inactive for over a year, contrasting with sharp drops seen in previous cycles. Investor fatigue and year-end adjustments, driven by tax and portfolio management, contribute to this measured selling. Despite subdued price performance, experts indicate that Bitcoin's fundamentals are strong, and a significant price recovery may occur after seller fatigue subsides.
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Long-Term Holders Drive Bitcoin Selling
Bitcoin is experiencing slow selling pressure from long-term holders, as investors gradually take profits, signaling a more stable market cycle. Analysts emphasize that this selling pressure comes not from panic sellers but from cautious long-term holders, indicating a maturing market trend. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to struggle maintaining upward momentum, despite strong buying interest from exchange-traded products, corporations, and institutional investors.
Controlled Selling Behavior Reflects Market Maturity
In a detailed analysis shared on X, Chris Kuiper, CFA, explains that the ongoing selling pressure stems from long-term Bitcoin holders (or HODLers) who are gradually taking profits. On-chain data indicates that this behavior is a deliberate and controlled shift, rather than a panic-driven event. Such activity demonstrates a more mature market dynamic, where investors act strategically after years of accumulation.
Key On-Chain Indicator: Inactive Bitcoin Supply
Kuiper highlighted the significant role of an important on-chain indicator: the percentage of Bitcoin inactive for at least one year. Historically, this metric rises during bear markets as investors hold their coins and drops sharply during bull markets during large sell-offs. However, in the current cycle, the decline in this metric is gentle and consistent, reflecting cautious profit realization. This supports the idea of a market trading sideways, driven by investor caution and the need for clearer signals.
Impact of Investor Fatigue and Year-End Strategy
Kuiper also points out investor fatigue as a contributing factor. Bitcoin has underperformed compared to both gold and the S&P 500, frustrating those who expected stronger returns during the traditionally bullish phase of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. The lack of a rally in October and November—months typically associated with favorable seasonality—has prompted some long-term holders to lock in profits for tax purposes and portfolio rebalancing before year-end. This gradual profit realization is driven by disappointment and pragmatic decision-making, not panic selling.
Signs of a More Mature Bitcoin Market
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, adds to this analysis by providing supporting data. He notes that Bitcoin’s 1-year inactive supply shows a smaller decline in recent cycles—only 10 percentage points in the 2021 and current 2024–2025 cycles—compared to the steeper 20-point decline during the 2017–2018 bull run. This shows that the ongoing selling is measured and orderly, highlighting a more experienced investor base and a maturing market cycle.
Strong Fundamentals and Future Recovery Potential
Despite Bitcoin’s subdued price action, both analysts agree that the cryptocurrency’s fundamentals remain strong. Once seller exhaustion sets in, the market may be primed for the next significant price recovery. This measured behavior by long-term holders demonstrates a shift towards a healthier and more sustainable market structure.