Solana at a Breaking Point: $1,000 Moonshot or Crash Back to $100?

After an impressive rally since early 2025, Solana (SOL) is now approaching a critical zone, both technically and psychologically. While several fundamental factors support its long-term growth, such as steady ETF inflows and booming DeFi activity, technical selling pressure and token unlocks from FTX/Alameda are causing concerns among investors. The key question now is whether SOL will surge toward $1,000 or fall back to $100.

According to data from EmberCN, FTX and Alameda recently unstaked 193,800 Solana (SOL) and distributed them across 28 wallet addresses, potentially creating short-term selling pressure on the market.

In contrast, ETF flows are showing the opposite momentum. Spot Solana ETFs have recorded 11 consecutive trading sessions of net inflows, with zero outflow days since their debut. Total assets under management have now reached $351 million, highlighting strong institutional interest. Additionally, Solana surpassed Bitcoin and Ethereum as the coin with the most significant capital inflows in the market last week.

At the ecosystem level, Solana continues to outperform other blockchains in DEX trading volume and on-chain application revenue. A particularly notable development is that SoFi Bank, a regulated US financial institution managing $36 billion in deposits, now allows its customers to directly purchase BTC, ETH, and SOL from their checking accounts. This greatly enhances legitimacy and accessibility of SOL for traditional investors.

This puts Solana in a tug-of-war between technical selling pressure from the bankrupt FTX/Alameda estates and genuine inflows from ETFs and real users. While this balance may introduce short-term volatility, regulated institutional capital is likely the more influential driver in the long term.

Analysts on X suggest that the $80 billion market cap, which aligns closely with the 100-week moving average (100 WMA), is a crucial technical support zone for Solana. If SOL holds this level, it could target the $1,000 price range within 3–6 months. Conversely, breaking this support could push SOL back to the $100 consolidation zone, equivalent to a $50 billion market cap.

In a previous analysis, BeInCrypto warned that Solana was under renewed selling pressure, experiencing a 20% drop and testing a long-term trendline, risking a break below the $100 support level. This highlights the precarious nature of the current market dynamics.

Short-term corrections are another possible scenario analysts consider. Some expect a liquidity sweep below support could trigger a rebound toward the $176 level, similar to past bullish setups.

However, Polymarket’s prediction data paints a more cautious picture, showing only a 1% probability that SOL will reach $300 by November 2025. This underscores the still-conservative market sentiment at present.

Technically, Solana's $80 billion market cap is acting as its “balance axis” for mid-term trends. A strong rebound from this support level could reignite bullish momentum toward the $180–$200 range. However, if buying volume fails to absorb the supply from FTX/Alameda wallets, a decline back to $100 remains a possibility.

At the time of writing, SOL is trading at $152.43, down 1.1% over the past 24 hours. Markets appear split on whether Solana will surge toward $1,000 or retrace to $100, leaving investors at a critical juncture.