HBAR Heads Toward a Crash Site — One Level Stands Between Price and the Fall
HBAR is experiencing bearish market conditions with its price down almost 1% today and trading flat over the past month. A head-and-shoulders pattern is forming on the daily chart, which, if confirmed by a neckline break at $0.160, could result in a 28% decline. On-Balance Volume (OBV), a key indicator of buying momentum, is weakening and nearing a critical threshold. Additionally, long positions outweigh shorts by 25%, increasing the risk of a long squeeze. For a bullish reversal, HBAR must reclaim $0.199 and hold OBV above its trendline. Failure to maintain these levels could lead to further significant price drops.
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HBAR Price Performance Overview
HBAR's price has dropped almost 1% today and has traded flat over the last month. However, it gained 5.7% in the past seven days, but this recent bounce does not alter the broader bearish picture. The chart is nearing the formation of a bearish structure, which could suggest deeper price drops unless one critical level holds.
Bearish Pattern Formation and Risks
HBAR is close to completing a head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart, a classic bearish setup. If the price falls below the neckline, this pattern could trigger a potential 28% decline. While the pattern is not confirmed yet, it is nearing completion, with the outcome hinging on volume behavior.
Key risks include:
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On-Balance Volume (OBV): This indicator shows whether volume is flowing into or out of the asset. OBV has been slowly rising along an ascending trendline since 23 October. However, this rise is weak, and when the price drifts toward the lower edge of this trendline, it often triggers price pullbacks.
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Leverage Map: Over the past seven days on Bitget:
- Long liquidations: 17.95 million
- Short liquidations: 14.34 million
With longs outweighing shorts by nearly 25%, this leaves the market exposed to a long squeeze, which could accelerate a drop if the neckline is broken.
Critical Levels: Bearish vs. Bullish Paths
HBAR's next direction comes down to two possible scenarios:
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Bearish Path (likely if the neckline breaks): The neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern is near $0.160. A clear break below this level completes the bearish structure, potentially exposing the price to a 28% fall, targeting $0.113 or even $0.100 if long liquidations cascade.
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Bullish Path (only if reclaimed): Recovery could start if HBAR reclaims $0.199 with strength. A full invalidation of the bearish pattern happens at $0.219, flipping momentum back to buyers.
Volume Support Necessity
For any bullish scenario, OBV must remain above its ascending trendline. If OBV slips below this line, the neckline is likely to break faster, sharply increasing the long squeeze risk. For now, with HBAR hovering near critical levels, the $0.160 support stands as the last defense between the price and a significant decline.