Myriad Moves: Traders Flip on Gold vs Ethereum, Solana Sentiment Sinks
Crypto markets faced significant declines, with Bitcoin dropping below $100,000, pressuring major peers like Ethereum and Solana. Predictors on Myriad’s markets now favor gold over Ethereum in reaching $5,000 first due to ETH's declining value and volatile trends. Similarly, Solana's chances of reaching a new all-time high by year’s end have dropped significantly, despite institutional interest via ETFs. Additionally, predictors remain uncertain about U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, with odds shifting as data blackouts and unclear macroeconomic conditions cloud predictions. Factors like the Fed's December meeting and economic developments could further impact these predictions.
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Crypto Market Slide Intensifies
Crypto is sliding once more, with Bitcoin diving below the $100,000 level on Thursday. The consistent and ranging price action of the largest crypto asset is also creating a strain on other major peers like Ethereum and Solana. Bearish predictions from users of Myriad’s prediction markets have emerged over the last week, leading to shifts in odds as uncertainty grips the market.
Gold versus Ethereum: Race to $5K
Market Open: October 15
Market Close: Open until resolution
Volume: $74K
Link: See the latest odds on the "Gold versus ETH: Which hits $5K first?" market on Myriad
Predictors on Myriad Markets are debating whether gold or Ethereum (ETH) will hit $5,000 first. While ETH was previously favored due to its historically stronger volatility, the recent crypto market downturn has flipped the odds. Currently, gold is favored to reach $5,000 first at 51.4% odds as of Thursday.
Key Data:
- Ethereum’s trajectory: ETH has fallen from its August all-time high of $5,000 to $3,181 (57% decline).
- Gold’s performance: Gold has risen 3% in the last week to $4,173, just 20% off the $5,000 mark.
Despite institutional interest in ETH and large acquisitions by BitMine Immersion Technologies, technical analysis suggests further downside in the short term for ETH.
Solana: All-Time High Unlikely
Market Open: August 6
Market Close: December 30
Volume: $232K
Link: See the latest odds on the "Another Solana all-time high by end of year?" market on Myriad
Solana (SOL) reached a high earlier this year when President Trump launched a meme coin on its blockchain, pushing the token's price to $293.31. However, SOL has since dropped nearly 52% to $141.63 as of Thursday. Predictors on Myriad have become increasingly bearish, giving only a 10.4% chance for a new all-time high by the year's end.
Crucial Odds Movement:
- Odds for a new all-time high were 65% in favor in September, dropped to 56% on October 10, and now stand at 10.4%.
- Positive drivers like SOL ETFs attracted institutional investors but failed to trigger a rally.
With broader macroeconomic uncertainty overshadowing cryptocurrency enthusiasm, SOL’s rally appears highly unlikely.
Fed Rate Cuts and Market Impacts
Market Open: August 31
Market Close: December 29
Volume: $33.9K
Link: See the latest odds on the "Exactly two Fed rate changes in 2025?" market on Myriad
Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by 0.25%, leading to a temporary celebration among traders. However, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices tumbled following Powell's remarks that a December rate cut is “not a foregone conclusion.”
Predictors on Myriad’s market, which tracks the likelihood of exactly two rate changes in 2025, have shifted odds significantly:
- Yes odds have increased to 45%, over a 16% jump in the last week as confidence in a final December rate cut declines.
Uncertainty is exacerbated by data blackouts from the government shutdown, muddying the macroeconomic outlook. Predictors remain cautious, especially with the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for December 9–10.