Bitcoin Eyes New All-Time High As Analyst Sets $170K Target
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a significant inflow of $520 million after recent large withdrawals, potentially driving Bitcoin prices higher. Bitcoin is currently trading around $104,000, with analysts predicting a possible rise to $160,000-$170,000, supported by the 'Diminishing Golden Curves' model and halving-based cycles. On-chain data suggests accumulating interest with stablecoin reserves increasing and Bitcoin exchange reserves decreasing. Analysts also highlight potential risks from macroeconomic events like US government shutdown impacts, which could affect volatility and market trends.
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Bitcoin ETF Inflows Signal a Market Shift
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a significant inflow of $520 million on Tuesday, a striking contrast to the modest $1.15 million inflow the previous day and a recent week marked by an outflow of $1.22 billion. These changes are under close observation, as ETF inflows have historically been linked to significant price increases in Bitcoin. Currently trading near $104,000, analysts suggest that if buying pressure persists, prices could rise to a range of $160,000–$170,000.
Diminishing Golden Curves Model and Price Prediction
The Diminishing Golden Curves model tracks Bitcoin price bands through logarithmic regression. The model analyzes deviations from the Golden Curve growth path and assigns them levels of significance:
- Past cycle tops hit +5 in November 2013, +4 in December 2017, and +3 in November 2021.
- Currently, the projection expects the next top near the +2 band, equal to a price range between $160,000 and $170,000, with possible extensions to $186,000.
If this holds true, Bitcoin could see a 70% rally from its current price around $104,000.
Impact of Halving Cycles on Bitcoin Trends
Bitcoin’s price trajectory also aligns with halving-based sine waves, which predict market peaks approximately 12–18 months after each halving event. Following the April 2024 halving, the model anticipates a potential Bitcoin market top in late 2025. This timing has become a critical reference point for traders, though it isn’t a guarantee, merely reflecting a historically observed pattern.
On-Chain Signals: Stablecoin and Exchange Reserves
Key on-chain metrics emphasize current market conditions. The stablecoin supply ratio has reached historical lows, implying significant “dry powder” is available on the sidelines for potential deployment into the market. Additionally:
- Stablecoin reserves on Binance are rising.
- Conversely, Bitcoin reserves on the exchange are falling.
These signals are often interpreted as accumulation by long-term holders, suggesting a potential bullish sentiment. Analyst Moreno from CryptoQuant notes increasing liquidity and low volatility, which may signal an attractive risk-reward ratio for potential buyers.
Timing and Potential Risks for Bitcoin’s Market
Even with promising projections, the market remains sensitive to macro-economic events, such as:
- New economic data releases.
- The resolution of the US government shutdown.
Such events can inject significant volatility, altering market flows. While models like the Diminishing Golden Curves serve as useful analytical tools, they rely on historical trends repeating—an assumption that could falter under unexpected major shocks.