Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Is Entering a Critical Phase as Bearish Momentum Builds

Bitcoin is currently hovering around $102.6k after a volatile start to November. While the price action remains choppy, it is still respecting the key structural levels despite heavy liquidations and sentiment shifts. The market is in a critical phase, sitting near mid-range support with weak bullish momentum and macro uncertainties looming. Buyers are holding the line for now, but there’s a sense of caution in the market.

On the daily chart, BTC is reacting to the 0.5 Fib retracement at $100.3k after being supported at the strong demand zone around $100k. The asset remains below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, located near the $110k mark, signaling that the broader trend has downward momentum.

The recent bounce failed to reclaim the key supply zone at $106k, which is now acting as resistance. Additionally, the RSI sits around 41, below the mid-level, further confirming weak bullish conviction. If the bounce loses strength, the next key levels are:

• 0.618 Fib level near $94,250
• A potential deeper retracement toward the $90k zone

The 4-hour chart shows BTC is still trading within a clear descending wedge. Despite a recent bullish bounce from the $100k level, rejection from the $106k region demonstrates aggressive defense by the sellers.

Until this wedge breaks to the upside with strong volume, the bounce will likely remain corrective within the broader downtrend. The short-term RSI is rebounding from oversold conditions and currently sits around 47, which is neutral, though not yet a sign of strength.

Key levels to watch:

• If Bitcoin flips $106k convincingly, it could prompt a test of the $110k level.
• Otherwise, further declines toward $100k or even $98k remain likely.

The Short-Term Holder SOPR (30-Day EMA) is trading below 1, signaling that recent buyers are selling at a loss. Historically, when SOPR fails to reclaim 1 during a bounce, it reflects weak market conviction and indicates the potential for further correction as holders sell to avoid bigger losses.

Key takeaway:

• Until SOPR consistently exceeds 1, signaling routine profit-taking, short-term panic selling is likely to persist. This could lead to additional supply in the market and increase the risk of further downside, especially if BTC drops lower in the coming weeks.