ETH Reclaims the 50-Day EMA vs. BTC – Is the Bull Run Starting?
Ethereum has reclaimed the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) against Bitcoin, a key technical level signaling potential early stages of an ETH bull market, similar to past cycles. ETH is priced at $3,530 with a 2% daily and 5% weekly gain. Analysts highlight technical setups, including a base around the $3,336-$3,400 range and a falling wedge breakout targeting $4,415, which could lead to a 25% rally. Long-term Fibonacci targets suggest higher levels, provided ETH holds above $3,000. Additionally, a notable 413,000 ETH was withdrawn from Binance, reflecting potential long-term holding trends.
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Ethereum Reclaims Key Technical Level Against Bitcoin
Ethereum has moved back above a key technical level against Bitcoin — the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), which historically has signaled the beginning of major rallies. At press time, ETH is priced at $3,530 with a 24-hour trading volume of nearly $38 billion. It has gained 2% in the past day and 5% over the last week.
Historical Significance of the 50-week EMA
Ethereum’s performance against Bitcoin is gaining attention after reclaiming the 50-week EMA. In past cycles, this signal has marked the early stages of ETH bull markets. For example, a similar setup emerged in early 2021, preceding Ethereum’s rally to its all-time highs.
Chart Insights from Merlijn
Chart data shared by Merlijn highlights the recurrence of this pattern. Previous breakdowns, such as in 2018 and 2022, were followed by significant declines. Currently, Ethereum appears to be holding above this level. Merlijn commented, 'A bullish retest here... and it’s game on,' suggesting this could signify the start of a new uptrend.
Technical Analysis Points to Support Levels
Ethereum recently dropped from nearly $4,960 to just above $3,000, resembling the 2020 correction before a major rally. Technical analysis from Marzell suggests a long setup is forming between $3,336 and $3,400, a range matching Fibonacci retracement levels. If ETH sustains above $3,000, potential targets include $5,982, $6,738, and $7,200. The analysis also indicates a possible breakout from a long-term downtrend line, which Ethereum is now retesting.
Short-Term Breakout and Potential for a Rally
On the 4-hour chart, Joe Swanson identified a falling wedge pattern, with a breakout near $3,560. ETH is currently trading slightly above that level, with a potential target near $4,415. Swanson noted, 'A decisive move could trigger a 25% rally,' adding that the 200 EMA near $3,790 could serve as the next resistance.
Major Exchange Outflows Indicate Long-Term Holding
Recent data reveals that 413,000 ETH has been withdrawn from Binance in a single day—the largest daily outflow since February. Large outflows from exchanges are typically associated with long-term holding behavior, reflecting growing confidence among Ethereum holders.