Will Crypto Crash in 2026 – Predicting The Next Bear Market
The article analyzes the potential for a crypto crash in 2026, emphasizing Bitcoin's halving cycles and key indicators like the Pi-Cycle Top Indicator, MVRV Z-Score, and Global Liquidity Index. The report highlights that while Bitcoin reached $126,000 in October 2025, this is not the final peak, as the Pi-Cycle Indicator has yet to signal a top. Extended liquidity and ETF inflows have delayed the peak, which is now projected between June and September 2026. Major indicators suggest a market high of $200,000–$250,000 before a significant crash begins. The crash window aligns with March to August 2026, with a potential bear market starting between August and November 2026. Declines are expected to range between 50–70%, but liquidity and ETFs may moderate the fall.
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The Core Question: Is a Crypto Crash Coming in 2026?
The question traders keep asking is simple: Will a crypto crash in 2026 happen, or has it already started? Every major downturn in this market has typically followed the same pattern: Bitcoin completes its cycle top, sentiment peaks, and a major correction begins a few weeks later.
Before discussing the crash timeline, determining whether Bitcoin has already topped is essential. The usual peak window has passed, yet key top signals have never been triggered. If the top remains ahead, the crash window shifts into 2026.
Bitcoin’s Predictable Supply Clock
Bitcoin’s Four-Year Supply Clock is the First Clue For the Crypto Crash
Bitcoin operates on a predictable halving schedule: every 210,000 blocks, the block reward halves, reducing new supply and increasing prices for 12 to 18 months. Previous halving cycles have shown similar behavior:
- The 2012 halving led to a top after about 13 months.
- The 2016 halving peaked after around 17 months.
- The 2020 halving resulted in a peak after about 18 months.
Following this pattern, the April 20, 2024, halving points toward a peak between July and October 2025. Bitcoin even touched $126,000 in early October, resembling a textbook cycle top. However, the Pi-Cycle Top Indicator, known to mark peaks within one or two days, did not cross, suggesting the October high may only be a mid-cycle high.
What Extended This Bitcoin Cycle?
Why This Cycle Is Running Longer Than Usual
Two primary forces have extended this Bitcoin cycle:
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ETF Flows Absorption: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in over $60 billion since early 2024, absorbing new supply faster than miners could produce.
- Miners produce about 13,875 BTC per month, worth $1.4 billion.
- During heavy inflows, ETFs absorbed $4–5 billion monthly, outpacing supply creation.
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Elevated Global Liquidity: Global money supply across major economies continues to grow above 6% year-over-year, with central banks slowing tightening measures and reserves staying high.
These factors delayed exhaustion and pushed the cycle beyond typical halving windows. Attention now turns to the mostly accurate Pi-Cycle Top Indicator for timing the ultimate peak.
The Pi-Cycle Top Indicator: Predicting the Final Peak
How the Pi-Cycle Top Indicator Works
The Pi-Cycle Top Indicator assesses two moving averages:
- 111-day average
- Twice the 350-day average
When the 111-day average surpasses the slower line, Bitcoin typically reaches a final top within 1–2 days. As of November 11, 2025:
- 111-day average: $113,394
- 2×350-day average: $205,767
- Gap: $92,373
At different slopes:
- At $200/day: Crossover happens in February 2027 (462 days).
- At $320/day: Crossover happens in August 2026 (289 days).
- At $400/day: Crossover happens in June 2026 (231 days).
This positions the realistic Pi-Cycle window between June and September 2026, reinforcing that the October 2025 high is not the final top.
MVRV Z-Score: Valuation Insights
MVRV: What It Measures
The MVRV Z-Score compares Bitcoin's market value with its realized value, reflecting average price movement. Historically, major tops form when MVRV surges to extreme levels.
As of November 12, 2025:
- Market value: $2.05 trillion
- MVRV: 1.81
MVRV warning zone lies between 3.0–3.5, where past peaks occurred. For this cycle:
- At MVRV 3.0, market value reaches $3.39 trillion (~$174,000/coin).
- At MVRV 3.5, market value equals $3.96 trillion (~$203,000/coin).
This aligns with the Pi-Cycle projections, suggesting May–August 2026 as a critical period for valuation overheating before a potential crash.
Global Liquidity’s Role in Market Dynamics
Global Liquidity Index (GLI)
Bitcoin’s valuation correlates with global liquidity levels. The Global Liquidity Index (GLI) tracks money supply and central bank policies.
As of November 2025, GLI stands near 75, growing about 4 points per month. Peaks often occur around 90, suggesting the next liquidity high between March and May 2026. Historically:
- GLI peaks precede Bitcoin’s surge.
- Liquidity-driven highs act as bull traps, followed by corrections.
This aligns with MVRV overheating in spring 2026 and momentum exhaustion by summer 2026.
Anticipating the 2026 Crypto Crash
When Will the Crypto Crash Begin?
The next crypto crash will likely follow Bitcoin’s final peak by 1–4 weeks. Indicators suggest:
- Liquidity peaks: March–May 2026
- MVRV overheating: May–August 2026
- Pi-Cycle top: June–September 2026
Expected decline ranges:
- Moderate drop: 50–60%, pulling Bitcoin to $90,000–$110,000.
- Deeper drop: 70%, pushing Bitcoin toward $70,000–$80,000.
ETF custody may slow declines, transforming the crash into a prolonged correction. However, the real peak lies ahead in 2026, with the crash window opening later that year, potentially confirming the start of a bear market by August–November 2026.