CryptoQuant data shows long-term holders of Bitcoin are selling hard
Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) have sold approximately 815,000 BTC in the past 30 days, hitting the highest level since January 2024, according to CryptoQuant. The selling coincides with declining spot demand and net outflows from BTC ETFs, putting downward pressure on Bitcoin's price. Despite realizing $3 billion in profits on November 7, selling pressure remains high, and net realized losses have been negligible. The 365-day moving average of $102,000 acts as a key support level, with bearish sentiment persisting as Bitcoin approaches $100,000. Contributing factors include loss of price momentum since October 10, contraction in spot demand, and slowed stablecoin liquidity growth. Large holders are also transferring significant BTC amounts to exchanges, signaling increased selling pressure. While institutional demand has dropped, some view LTH activity as strategic redistribution typical of bull markets. Notably, a Satoshi-era whale recently sold $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin after holding it for nearly 15 years.
Layer-1
Record-High Bitcoin Selling by Long-Term Holders
Data compiled by CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) have sold approximately 815,000 BTC over the past 30 days, marking the highest level of selling since January 2024. This mass selloff coincides with a decline in spot demand for Bitcoin and a decrease in net inflows from BTC ETFs, as reported by the crypto analytics platform. While previous periods of high selling saw strong demand to absorb the supply, this is not the case now, according to CryptoQuant.
Profit-Taking and Minimal Realized Losses
CryptoQuant highlighted that Bitcoin holders recently realized profits of $3 billion on November 7, a relatively high level comparable to October's profits. Despite the significant selloff, net realized losses have been practically non-existent, suggesting holders are avoiding panic selling. According to CryptoQuant, this could be an indication that market conditions are stabilizing, potentially a precondition for forming a price bottom.
Bitcoin's 365-Day Moving Average as Crucial Support
The analysis also noted that Bitcoin prices have been oscillating around its 365-day moving average of $102,000, a critical technical and psychological support level. CryptoQuant identified this moving average as a significant marker during previous market cycles, specifically as the bear market began in December 2021-January 2022. Failure to recapture the 365-day moving average could potentially lead to a deeper price correction, reflecting the current bearish sentiment in the market as BTC approaches the $100,000 level.
Key Factors Behind Bearish Market Sentiment
According to CryptoQuant, three main factors have contributed to the prevailing bearish sentiment in the Bitcoin market:
- BTC price momentum turned bearish following the October 10 crash.
- Spot demand contracted on October 8, though it has since shown signs of recovery.
- Stablecoin liquidity growth slowed down, failing to match earlier trends.
Together, these factors have weighed heavily on the market, challenging investor confidence.
Red October: Testing Investor Conviction
October, often referred to as 'Red October,' has been a particularly challenging month for Bitcoin investors. Long-term Bitcoin holders sold nearly 405,000 BTC in October, with an estimated realized value of $43 billion. Notably, a prominent whale address 195DJ offloaded 13,004 BTC during this period, while approximately 1,200 BTC (~$132 million) was transferred to Kraken in the last week of October. The movement of large holdings to exchanges has intensified selling pressure further, reflecting shifting market dynamics.
Institutional Demand Declines Amid Redistribution
Institutional demand for Bitcoin has significantly fallen, with net institutional BTC purchases dropping below the daily mining supply for the first time in seven months. However, CryptoQuant reports that not all investors view this as negative; instead, some interpret the selloff as part of a strategic redistribution within a bull market cycle. Long-term holders are moving coins into the hands of institutional investors and traditional finance, potentially representing retail clients and paving the way for broader Bitcoin adoption.
A Satoshi-Era Whale Moves $1.5 Billion in Bitcoin
Adding to recent selling trends, a Satoshi-era whale sold its entire Bitcoin holdings, valued at $1.5 billion, after holding the coins for nearly 15 years. Erik Voorhees, the founder of ShapeShift, emphasized that the focus should not be on short-term price movements but rather on Bitcoin's ultimate goal of achieving monetary dominance and widespread adoption. Such large transactions exemplify the broader shifts occurring within the Bitcoin ecosystem.